Austin vs Dallas

**Home-Price Appreciation** Both markets are posting modest positive appreciation as of Q2 2026, but with meaningfully different trajectories. Austin's FHFA HPI is up +0.3% year-over-year and +0.9% quarter-over-quarter (Q2 2026), reflecting a market that peaked sharply in mid-2022 and has spent roughly four years working off that excess — the index declined steadily from its 2022 peak through late 2024 before stabilizing. The recent +0.9% QoQ uptick is the most encouraging signal Austin buyers have seen in some time, though annual appreciation remains near flat. Dallas-Fort Worth tells a steadier story: the Dallas-Plano-Irving division is up +0.5% YoY and -0.3% QoQ as of Q2 2026, while Fort Worth-Arlington-Grapevine is up +0.7% YoY and +0.1% QoQ over the same period. DFW never experienced Austin's severity of correction — its index dipped modestly from its 2022 peak and has largely held — but it also never offered the same entry-point opportunity. Buyers in Austin are accessing prices meaningfully below the 2022 peak; buyers in DFW are paying prices close to cycle highs.

**Construction & Supply** New supply remains a defining feature of both markets, but the scale difference is striking. Dallas-Fort Worth issued 4,675 permits in July 2026 (Census BPS), down -10.5% versus July 2025 — still a very high absolute level for a single month, consistent with the 4,000–7,700 range the metro has run throughout 2025–2026. Austin issued 2,605 permits in July 2026, down -10.7% versus July 2025, roughly half DFW's volume — yet relative to Austin's much smaller population of approximately 2.62 million (vs. DFW's ~8.5 million), per-capita supply pressure in Austin is arguably comparable. Both metros have seen permit volumes ease from their pandemic-era peaks, but neither has pulled back sharply enough to meaningfully tighten near-term inventory. For buyers, continued construction activity keeps seller pricing power in check; for investors, it limits the pace of rent recovery.

**Labor Markets, Income & Rental Costs** Austin's unemployment rate reached 4.0% in July 2026 (BLS LAUS, not seasonally adjusted), up from 3.6% a year earlier in July 2025 — a 40-basis-point deterioration that reflects the tech sector's broader caution. DFW's unemployment was 4.6% in July 2026, up from 4.2% a year earlier in July 2025 — also a 40-basis-point rise, but starting and ending at a higher level, consistent with a larger, more cyclically exposed labor market spanning logistics, aviation, and defense. On household income, Austin's ACS 2024 median of $99,897 meaningfully exceeds DFW's $92,733 — a ~$7,200 gap that partially offsets Austin's higher home values. Rental costs are close: HUD FY2026 Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,852/month in Austin versus $1,931/month in Dallas-Fort Worth — a $79/month edge favoring Austin, notable given Austin's sharper apartment market correction from its 2022 peak.

**Cost of Living, Taxes & Value Proposition** Both metros are in Texas and carry no state income tax on wages (Texas Comptroller, 2026). Property tax effective rates are nearly identical: Austin's ACS 2024 effective rate is 1.43% versus DFW's 1.44% — a difference of just 0.01 percentage points; on a $389,500 home (DFW's ACS 2024 median value), that 0.01-point gap translates to roughly $39/year — immaterial to any purchase decision. The more meaningful distinction is overall cost of living: Austin's BEA 2024 price level is 98.1 (below the U.S. average of 100), while DFW's is 103.1 — making Austin approximately 5% cheaper overall. That gap, combined with Austin's higher median household income and below-cycle home prices, gives Austin a stronger affordability profile on paper today. DFW's advantage lies in price stability, a larger and more diversified economy with blue-chip anchors across multiple industries, and population growth of +1.48% YoY (2025 Census estimate) that, while slightly trailing Austin's +2.1%, is occurring at a far larger absolute scale.