Phoenix Housing Market, October 2026: Mortgage Rates Reach 7.40% as Home Values Slip 1.1%
Rates reached 7.40% as Phoenix home values slipped 1.1%. See what that adds to the payment on a $440,821 home and how to negotiate it back.
4 min read
30-yr fixed: 7.40%Freddie Mac ·
Sun Belt real estate market trends, by the numbers.
For the mover who wants the numbers — and the partner who needs the feel. FRED-grounded market data for the Pragmatist, neighbourhood and lifestyle coverage for the Dreamer — across 12 metros from Phoenix to Raleigh.
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Primary data sources: FHFA HPIU.S. Census BureauBureau of Labor StatisticsHUD Fair Market Rentsretrieved via FRED and FHFA
Sun Belt Market Tracker
Public-domain housing market data for twelve of the fastest-growing metros in America.
- +1.0% Atlanta div. HPI YoY
Atlanta
GA
$1,820/mo
2BR Fair Market Rent · HUD FY2026
- Unemployment
- 3.2%
- BLS · Jul 2026
- Pop. growth
- +0.96%
- Census · 2025
- +0.3% HPI YoY
Austin
TX
$1,852/mo
2BR Fair Market Rent · HUD FY2026
- Unemployment
- 4.0%
- BLS · Jul 2026
- Pop. growth
- +2.10%
- Census · 2025
- +1.5% HPI YoY
Charlotte
NC
$1,686/mo
2BR Fair Market Rent · HUD FY2026
- Unemployment
- 3.7%
- BLS · Jul 2026
- Pop. growth
- +1.88%
- Census · 2025
- +0.5% Dallas div. HPI YoY
Dallas-Fort Worth
TX
$1,931/mo
2BR Fair Market Rent · HUD FY2026
- Unemployment
- 4.6%
- BLS · Jul 2026
- Pop. growth
- +1.48%
- Census · 2025
- +3.4% HPI YoY
Houston
TX
$1,573/mo
2BR Fair Market Rent · HUD FY2026
- Unemployment
- 5.1%
- BLS · Jul 2026
- Pop. growth
- +1.63%
- Census · 2025
- +0.1% HPI YoY
Jacksonville
FL
$1,658/mo
2BR Fair Market Rent · HUD FY2026
- Unemployment
- 4.9%
- BLS · Jul 2026
- Pop. growth
- +1.49%
- Census · 2025
- +1.6% HPI YoY
Nashville
TN
$1,730/mo
2BR Fair Market Rent · HUD FY2026
- Unemployment
- 3.1%
- BLS · Jul 2026
- Pop. growth
- +1.60%
- Census · 2025
- +0.8% HPI YoY
Orlando
FL
$1,972/mo
2BR Fair Market Rent · HUD FY2026
- Unemployment
- 4.7%
- BLS · Jul 2026
- Pop. growth
- +1.29%
- Census · 2025
- +0.8% HPI YoY
Phoenix
AZ
$1,839/mo
2BR Fair Market Rent · HUD FY2026
- Unemployment
- 4.3%
- BLS · Jul 2026
- Pop. growth
- +1.14%
- Census · 2025
- +1.1% HPI YoY
Raleigh
NC
$1,750/mo
2BR Fair Market Rent · HUD FY2026
- Unemployment
- 3.2%
- BLS · Jul 2026
- Pop. growth
- +2.36%
- Census · 2025
- -0.5% HPI YoY
San Antonio
TX
$1,426/mo
2BR Fair Market Rent · HUD FY2026
- Unemployment
- 4.3%
- BLS · Jul 2026
- Pop. growth
- +1.38%
- Census · 2025
- +1.1% Tampa div. HPI YoY
Tampa
FL
$1,977/mo
2BR Fair Market Rent · HUD FY2026
- Unemployment
- 4.8%
- BLS · Jul 2026
- Pop. growth
- +0.40%
- Census · 2025
HPI YoY: FHFA House Price Index, Q2 2026 vs. a year earlier. Atlanta: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell division. Dallas-Fort Worth: Dallas-Plano-Irving division. Tampa: Tampa division.
12
Metros tracked
+1.0%
Avg HPI YoY change (Q2 2026)
+1.48%
Avg population growth (YoY, 2025)
4.2%
Avg unemployment rate (Jul 2026)
Averaged across 12 tracked metros (Tampa home prices: Tampa division; Dallas-Fort Worth home prices: Dallas-Plano-Irving division; Atlanta home prices: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell division) · Sources: FHFA, U.S. Census Bureau, BLS — retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and FHFA
Compare tool
Two metros. One decision.
Side-by-side market data, migration signals, and lifestyle notes for every pair of Sun Belt metros — built for couples weighing two different shortlists.
Metric
Austin
Phoenix
HPI year-over-year
+0.3%
+0.8%
Population growth YoY
+2.10%
+1.14%
Unemployment
4%
4.3%
2BR Fair Market Rent
$1,852
$1,839
Sources: FHFA, Census, BLS, HUD · refreshed monthly
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Tools & resources
Planning the whole move?
Our relocation toolkit covers mortgage rates, movers, agents, insurance, and city-test rentals across 12 Sun Belt metros.