Sun Belt Housing Market Report
The 2026 Sun Belt Housing Market Report
Twelve Sun Belt metros — Phoenix to Raleigh, Austin to Tampa — ranked on five public-domain housing market indicators: FHFA home price index (the 10 metros with current index data), population growth, building permits, unemployment, and Fair Market Rents.
Data as of July 2026 · FHFA, U.S. Census, BLS, HUD · SunBeltPulse Editorial
What the data says
The Sun Belt housing market is diverging
Across the 10 metros with current FHFA data, the FHFA House Price Index ranges from -0.5% year-over-year in San Antonio to +3.4% in Houston as of Q2 2026. That 3.9-point spread reflects very different local stories — some markets are still climbing, others have begun to give back gains from the pandemic-era boom. FHFA has not published updated index values for Atlanta and Tampa since Q4 2024, so they are excluded from the price rankings below and shown with their last published vintage in the data table.
The migration story is real and measurable. Raleigh leads population growth at +2.4% year-over-year, and Tampa is responding with the strongest permit activity in the cohort (+37.8% YoY). Job markets remain tight everywhere in the Sun Belt — Nashville sits at just 3.1% unemployment, well below the national average.
This report ranks the twelve metros across the public-domain government data series that capture the housing market most directly (Atlanta and Tampa sit out only the FHFA price rankings): FHFA House Price Index, U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey, BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, and HUD Fair Market Rents. No proprietary data, no paywalls — the methodology is at the bottom of this page.
The headline ranking
Sun Belt metros, ranked by FHFA HPI year-over-year change
FHFA House Price Index YoY change
Houston leads at +3.4% YoY; San Antonio is the deepest correction at -0.5%.
FHFA House Price Index YoY change. Ranked top to bottom: 1. Houston — +3.4%; 2. Nashville — +1.6%; 3. Charlotte — +1.5%; 4. Raleigh — +1.1%; 5. Orlando — +0.8%; 6. Phoenix — +0.8%; 7. Dallas-Fort Worth — +0.5%; 8. Austin — +0.3%; 9. Jacksonville — +0.1%; 10. San Antonio — -0.5%.
| Rank | Metro | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston | +3.4% |
| 2 | Nashville | +1.6% |
| 3 | Charlotte | +1.5% |
| 4 | Raleigh | +1.1% |
| 5 | Orlando | +0.8% |
| 6 | Phoenix | +0.8% |
| 7 | Dallas-Fort Worth | +0.5% |
| 8 | Austin | +0.3% |
| 9 | Jacksonville | +0.1% |
| 10 | San Antonio | -0.5% |
Atlanta and Tampa are not ranked here: FHFA last published their metro index for Q4 2024, so a year-over-year comparison against Q2 2026 data would mislead. Population, permits, and jobs rankings still include them.
Four more ways to read the market
Where the leverage is — by metric
Where buyers have the most leverage (HPI YoY)
San Antonio leads the correction at -0.5% YoY — the deepest pull-back in the cohort.
Where buyers have the most leverage (HPI YoY). Ranked top to bottom: 1. San Antonio — -0.5%; 2. Jacksonville — +0.1%; 3. Austin — +0.3%; 4. Dallas-Fort Worth — +0.5%; 5. Orlando — +0.8%; 6. Phoenix — +0.8%; 7. Raleigh — +1.1%; 8. Charlotte — +1.5%; 9. Nashville — +1.6%; 10. Houston — +3.4%.
| Rank | Metro | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Antonio | -0.5% |
| 2 | Jacksonville | +0.1% |
| 3 | Austin | +0.3% |
| 4 | Dallas-Fort Worth | +0.5% |
| 5 | Orlando | +0.8% |
| 6 | Phoenix | +0.8% |
| 7 | Raleigh | +1.1% |
| 8 | Charlotte | +1.5% |
| 9 | Nashville | +1.6% |
| 10 | Houston | +3.4% |
Where people are moving (population YoY)
Raleigh leads at +2.4% year-over-year population growth.
Where people are moving (population YoY). Ranked top to bottom: 1. Raleigh — +2.4%; 2. Austin — +2.1%; 3. Charlotte — +1.9%; 4. Houston — +1.6%; 5. Nashville — +1.6%; 6. Jacksonville — +1.5%; 7. Dallas-Fort Worth — +1.5%; 8. San Antonio — +1.4%; 9. Orlando — +1.3%; 10. Phoenix — +1.1%; 11. Atlanta — +1.0%; 12. Tampa — +0.4%.
| Rank | Metro | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raleigh | +2.4% |
| 2 | Austin | +2.1% |
| 3 | Charlotte | +1.9% |
| 4 | Houston | +1.6% |
| 5 | Nashville | +1.6% |
| 6 | Jacksonville | +1.5% |
| 7 | Dallas-Fort Worth | +1.5% |
| 8 | San Antonio | +1.4% |
| 9 | Orlando | +1.3% |
| 10 | Phoenix | +1.1% |
| 11 | Atlanta | +1.0% |
| 12 | Tampa | +0.4% |
Where supply is expanding (permits YoY)
Tampa leads permit activity at +37.8% YoY — the strongest construction response.
Where supply is expanding (permits YoY). Ranked top to bottom: 1. Tampa — +37.8%; 2. San Antonio — +9.7%; 3. Atlanta — +0.7%; 4. Houston — 0.0%; 5. Orlando — -3.6%; 6. Dallas-Fort Worth — -10.5%; 7. Austin — -10.7%; 8. Raleigh — -17.0%; 9. Charlotte — -22.8%; 10. Nashville — -31.9%; 11. Phoenix — -33.6%; 12. Jacksonville — -37.8%.
| Rank | Metro | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa | +37.8% |
| 2 | San Antonio | +9.7% |
| 3 | Atlanta | +0.7% |
| 4 | Houston | 0.0% |
| 5 | Orlando | -3.6% |
| 6 | Dallas-Fort Worth | -10.5% |
| 7 | Austin | -10.7% |
| 8 | Raleigh | -17.0% |
| 9 | Charlotte | -22.8% |
| 10 | Nashville | -31.9% |
| 11 | Phoenix | -33.6% |
| 12 | Jacksonville | -37.8% |
Tightest job markets (unemployment rate)
Nashville sits at 3.1% unemployment — the tightest labor market in the cohort.
Tightest job markets (unemployment rate). Ranked top to bottom: 1. Nashville — +3.1%; 2. Atlanta — +3.2%; 3. Raleigh — +3.2%; 4. Charlotte — +3.7%; 5. Austin — +4.0%; 6. Phoenix — +4.3%; 7. San Antonio — +4.3%; 8. Dallas-Fort Worth — +4.6%; 9. Orlando — +4.7%; 10. Tampa — +4.8%; 11. Jacksonville — +4.9%; 12. Houston — +5.1%.
| Rank | Metro | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville | +3.1% |
| 2 | Atlanta | +3.2% |
| 3 | Raleigh | +3.2% |
| 4 | Charlotte | +3.7% |
| 5 | Austin | +4.0% |
| 6 | Phoenix | +4.3% |
| 7 | San Antonio | +4.3% |
| 8 | Dallas-Fort Worth | +4.6% |
| 9 | Orlando | +4.7% |
| 10 | Tampa | +4.8% |
| 11 | Jacksonville | +4.9% |
| 12 | Houston | +5.1% |
The full picture
All 12 metros, every metric — sortable
Click any column header to sort. Click any metro name to dig into its full market page.
| Atlanta, GA | 376.3† | +4.2%† | -0.1%† | 2,841 | +0.7% | 3.2% | +1.0% | $1,820 |
| Houston, TX | 414.2 | +3.4% | +0.8% | 5,773 | 0.0% | 5.1% | +1.6% | $1,573 |
| Tampa, FL | 554.5† | +1.9%† | -0.9%† | 2,163 | +37.8% | 4.8% | +0.4% | $1,977 |
| Nashville, TN | 485.3 | +1.6% | +0.1% | 1,343 | -31.9% | 3.1% | +1.6% | $1,730 |
| Charlotte, NC | 412.4 | +1.5% | +0.3% | 1,289 | -22.8% | 3.7% | +1.9% | $1,686 |
| Raleigh, NC | 367.2 | +1.1% | -0.1% | 1,538 | -17.0% | 3.2% | +2.4% | $1,750 |
| Orlando, FL | 457.1 | +0.8% | -0.5% | 2,008 | -3.6% | 4.7% | +1.3% | $1,972 |
| Phoenix, AZ | 517.1 | +0.8% | -0.4% | 2,398 | -33.6% | 4.3% | +1.1% | $1,839 |
| Dallas-Fort Worth, TX | 426.4 | +0.5% | -0.3% | 4,675 | -10.5% | 4.6% | +1.5% | $1,931 |
| Austin, TX | 506.3 | +0.3% | +0.9% | 2,605 | -10.7% | 4% | +2.1% | $1,852 |
| Jacksonville, FL | 458.9 | +0.1% | -1.3% | 844 | -37.8% | 4.9% | +1.5% | $1,658 |
| San Antonio, TX | 378.4 | -0.5% | +0.5% | 1,113 | +9.7% | 4.3% | +1.4% | $1,426 |
† HPI columns show the last vintage FHFA published for Atlanta (Q4 2024) and Tampa (Q4 2024); all other columns are current.
Go deeper
Every metro, at a glance
GA
Atlanta
- HPI YoY
- +4.2% (Q4 2024)
- Permits YoY
- +0.7%
- Unemployment
- 3.2%
- Pop. growth
- +1.0%
Full market page →
TX
Austin
- HPI YoY
- +0.3%
- Permits YoY
- -10.7%
- Unemployment
- 4%
- Pop. growth
- +2.1%
Full market page →
NC
Charlotte
- HPI YoY
- +1.5%
- Permits YoY
- -22.8%
- Unemployment
- 3.7%
- Pop. growth
- +1.9%
Full market page →
TX
Dallas-Fort Worth
- HPI YoY
- +0.5%
- Permits YoY
- -10.5%
- Unemployment
- 4.6%
- Pop. growth
- +1.5%
Full market page →
TX
Houston
- HPI YoY
- +3.4%
- Permits YoY
- 0.0%
- Unemployment
- 5.1%
- Pop. growth
- +1.6%
Full market page →
FL
Jacksonville
- HPI YoY
- +0.1%
- Permits YoY
- -37.8%
- Unemployment
- 4.9%
- Pop. growth
- +1.5%
Full market page →
TN
Nashville
- HPI YoY
- +1.6%
- Permits YoY
- -31.9%
- Unemployment
- 3.1%
- Pop. growth
- +1.6%
Full market page →
FL
Orlando
- HPI YoY
- +0.8%
- Permits YoY
- -3.6%
- Unemployment
- 4.7%
- Pop. growth
- +1.3%
Full market page →
AZ
Phoenix
- HPI YoY
- +0.8%
- Permits YoY
- -33.6%
- Unemployment
- 4.3%
- Pop. growth
- +1.1%
Full market page →
NC
Raleigh
- HPI YoY
- +1.1%
- Permits YoY
- -17.0%
- Unemployment
- 3.2%
- Pop. growth
- +2.4%
Full market page →
TX
San Antonio
- HPI YoY
- -0.5%
- Permits YoY
- +9.7%
- Unemployment
- 4.3%
- Pop. growth
- +1.4%
Full market page →
FL
Tampa
- HPI YoY
- +1.9% (Q4 2024)
- Permits YoY
- +37.8%
- Unemployment
- 4.8%
- Pop. growth
- +0.4%
Full market page →
Head to head
Compare any two Sun Belt metros
Rankings show the field; a head-to-head shows your shortlist. Cost of living, home prices, rents, taxes, jobs, and climate — side by side.
Methodology
How this report is built
Sources: FHFA House Price Index (quarterly, all-transactions), U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey (monthly), BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics (monthly), and U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates (annual) — all retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. HUD 2-bedroom Fair Market Rent retrieved directly from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development User API. All series are public-domain US government data; no proprietary data sources are used. This report reflects the latest snapshot as of July 2026.
SunBeltPulse is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FHFA, U.S. Census Bureau, BLS, or HUD.
Editorial framing — what the numbers mean, where the corrections are, who has leverage — is added on top of the raw data by SunBeltPulse editorial. The rankings themselves are not editorial: they are sorted by the underlying numeric values, top to bottom, with no curation.
Metrics defined
- Median home price
- The median active listing price (not closing price) across all single-family homes listed on the MLS for the MSA.
- Year-over-year / month-over-month
- Percent change in median listing price versus the same month one year ago, or the prior month.
- Active listings
- Total homes on the market in the MSA at month-end.
- Months of supply
- Active listings divided by new listings — how many months it would take to clear inventory at the current selling pace. Below 4–5 is a seller's market.
- Days on market
- Median time a listing spends active before leaving the market.
- Cash buyer percentage
- Share of all sales closed without mortgage financing. Higher percentages indicate more investor and relocator competition.
Full data sourcing and editorial policy on our disclosure page.