Sun Belt Housing Market Report
The 2026 Sun Belt Housing Market Report
Twelve Sun Belt metros — Phoenix to Raleigh, Austin to Tampa — ranked on five public-domain housing market indicators: FHFA home price index, population growth, building permits, unemployment, and Fair Market Rents.
Data as of April 2026 · FHFA, U.S. Census, BLS, HUD · SunBeltPulse Editorial
What the data says
The Sun Belt housing market is diverging
Across the twelve metros we track, the FHFA House Price Index ranges from -0.8% year-over-year in Austin to +4.2% in Atlanta as of Q4 2024. That5.0-point spread reflects very different local stories — some markets are still climbing, others have begun to give back gains from the pandemic-era boom.
The migration story is real and measurable. Austin leads population growth at +2.7% year-over-year, and Raleigh is responding with the strongest permit activity in the cohort (+59.7% YoY). Job markets remain tight everywhere in the Sun Belt — Atlanta sits at just 2.8% unemployment, well below the national average.
This report ranks all twelve metros across the public-domain government data series that capture the housing market most directly: FHFA House Price Index, U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey, BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, and HUD Fair Market Rents. No proprietary data, no paywalls — the methodology is at the bottom of this page.
The headline ranking
Sun Belt metros, ranked by FHFA HPI year-over-year change
FHFA House Price Index YoY change
Atlanta leads at +4.2% YoY; Austin is the deepest correction at -0.8%.
FHFA House Price Index YoY change. Ranked top to bottom: 1. Atlanta — +4.2%; 2. Jacksonville — +3.2%; 3. Nashville — +3.2%; 4. Charlotte — +2.5%; 5. Orlando — +2.5%; 6. Phoenix — +2.4%; 7. Tampa — +1.9%; 8. San Antonio — +1.4%; 9. Houston — +1.3%; 10. Dallas-Fort Worth — +1.1%; 11. Raleigh — +1.0%; 12. Austin — -0.8%.
| Rank | Metro | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlanta | +4.2% |
| 2 | Jacksonville | +3.2% |
| 3 | Nashville | +3.2% |
| 4 | Charlotte | +2.5% |
| 5 | Orlando | +2.5% |
| 6 | Phoenix | +2.4% |
| 7 | Tampa | +1.9% |
| 8 | San Antonio | +1.4% |
| 9 | Houston | +1.3% |
| 10 | Dallas-Fort Worth | +1.1% |
| 11 | Raleigh | +1.0% |
| 12 | Austin | -0.8% |
Four more ways to read the market
Where the leverage is — by metric
Where buyers have the most leverage (HPI YoY)
Austin leads the correction at -0.8% YoY — the deepest pull-back in the cohort.
Where buyers have the most leverage (HPI YoY). Ranked top to bottom: 1. Austin — -0.8%; 2. Raleigh — +1.0%; 3. Dallas-Fort Worth — +1.1%; 4. Houston — +1.3%; 5. San Antonio — +1.4%; 6. Tampa — +1.9%; 7. Phoenix — +2.4%; 8. Charlotte — +2.5%; 9. Orlando — +2.5%; 10. Jacksonville — +3.2%; 11. Nashville — +3.2%; 12. Atlanta — +4.2%.
| Rank | Metro | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin | -0.8% |
| 2 | Raleigh | +1.0% |
| 3 | Dallas-Fort Worth | +1.1% |
| 4 | Houston | +1.3% |
| 5 | San Antonio | +1.4% |
| 6 | Tampa | +1.9% |
| 7 | Phoenix | +2.4% |
| 8 | Charlotte | +2.5% |
| 9 | Orlando | +2.5% |
| 10 | Jacksonville | +3.2% |
| 11 | Nashville | +3.2% |
| 12 | Atlanta | +4.2% |
Where people are moving (population YoY)
Austin leads at +2.7% year-over-year population growth.
Where people are moving (population YoY). Ranked top to bottom: 1. Austin — +2.7%; 2. Raleigh — +2.4%; 3. Charlotte — +1.9%; 4. Houston — +1.7%; 5. Nashville — +1.6%; 6. Jacksonville — +1.5%; 7. Dallas-Fort Worth — +1.5%; 8. San Antonio — +1.4%; 9. Atlanta — +1.3%; 10. Orlando — +1.3%; 11. Phoenix — +1.1%; 12. Tampa — +0.4%.
| Rank | Metro | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin | +2.7% |
| 2 | Raleigh | +2.4% |
| 3 | Charlotte | +1.9% |
| 4 | Houston | +1.7% |
| 5 | Nashville | +1.6% |
| 6 | Jacksonville | +1.5% |
| 7 | Dallas-Fort Worth | +1.5% |
| 8 | San Antonio | +1.4% |
| 9 | Atlanta | +1.3% |
| 10 | Orlando | +1.3% |
| 11 | Phoenix | +1.1% |
| 12 | Tampa | +0.4% |
Where supply is expanding (permits YoY)
Raleigh leads permit activity at +59.7% YoY — the strongest construction response.
Where supply is expanding (permits YoY). Ranked top to bottom: 1. Raleigh — +59.7%; 2. Charlotte — +37.7%; 3. Jacksonville — +33.8%; 4. Nashville — +19.8%; 5. Atlanta — +19.2%; 6. Tampa — -9.3%; 7. San Antonio — -21.4%; 8. Orlando — -21.7%; 9. Houston — -22.4%; 10. Austin — -34.0%; 11. Dallas-Fort Worth — -35.4%; 12. Phoenix — -36.5%.
| Rank | Metro | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raleigh | +59.7% |
| 2 | Charlotte | +37.7% |
| 3 | Jacksonville | +33.8% |
| 4 | Nashville | +19.8% |
| 5 | Atlanta | +19.2% |
| 6 | Tampa | -9.3% |
| 7 | San Antonio | -21.4% |
| 8 | Orlando | -21.7% |
| 9 | Houston | -22.4% |
| 10 | Austin | -34.0% |
| 11 | Dallas-Fort Worth | -35.4% |
| 12 | Phoenix | -36.5% |
Tightest job markets (unemployment rate)
Atlanta sits at 2.8% unemployment — the tightest labor market in the cohort.
Tightest job markets (unemployment rate). Ranked top to bottom: 1. Atlanta — +2.8%; 2. Nashville — +3.0%; 3. Raleigh — +3.0%; 4. Austin — +3.4%; 5. Charlotte — +3.5%; 6. Dallas-Fort Worth — +3.8%; 7. Phoenix — +4.1%; 8. San Antonio — +4.1%; 9. Houston — +4.3%; 10. Orlando — +4.5%; 11. Tampa — +4.7%; 12. Jacksonville — +4.8%.
| Rank | Metro | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlanta | +2.8% |
| 2 | Nashville | +3.0% |
| 3 | Raleigh | +3.0% |
| 4 | Austin | +3.4% |
| 5 | Charlotte | +3.5% |
| 6 | Dallas-Fort Worth | +3.8% |
| 7 | Phoenix | +4.1% |
| 8 | San Antonio | +4.1% |
| 9 | Houston | +4.3% |
| 10 | Orlando | +4.5% |
| 11 | Tampa | +4.7% |
| 12 | Jacksonville | +4.8% |
The full picture
All 12 metros, every metric — sortable
Click any column header to sort. Click any metro name to dig into its full market page.
| Atlanta, GA | 376.3 | +4.2% | -0.1% | 3,289 | +19.2% | 2.8% | +1.3% | $1,820 |
| Jacksonville, FL | 467.2 | +3.2% | +1.5% | 1,432 | +33.8% | 4.8% | +1.5% | $1,658 |
| Nashville, TN | 486.3 | +3.2% | +1.0% | 1,602 | +19.8% | 3% | +1.6% | $1,730 |
| Charlotte, NC | 411.1 | +2.5% | 0.0% | 2,394 | +37.7% | 3.5% | +1.9% | $1,686 |
| Orlando, FL | 460.4 | +2.5% | +0.9% | 1,926 | -21.7% | 4.5% | +1.3% | $1,972 |
| Phoenix, AZ | 519.9 | +2.4% | +0.8% | 2,488 | -36.5% | 4.1% | +1.1% | $1,839 |
| Tampa, FL | 554.5 | +1.9% | -0.9% | 1,634 | -9.3% | 4.7% | +0.4% | $1,977 |
| San Antonio, TX | 378.1 | +1.4% | -1.3% | 957 | -21.4% | 4.1% | +1.4% | $1,426 |
| Houston, TX | 410.7 | +1.3% | +0.2% | 5,029 | -22.4% | 4.3% | +1.7% | $1,573 |
| Dallas-Fort Worth, TX | 428.3 | +1.1% | +0.6% | 4,951 | -35.4% | 3.8% | +1.5% | $1,931 |
| Raleigh, NC | 367.9 | +1.0% | +1.4% | 2,416 | +59.7% | 3% | +2.4% | $1,750 |
| Austin, TX | 502.8 | -0.8% | -0.3% | 1,511 | -34.0% | 3.4% | +2.7% | $1,852 |
Go deeper
Every metro, at a glance
GA
Atlanta
- HPI YoY
- +4.2%
- Permits YoY
- +19.2%
- Unemployment
- 2.8%
- Pop. growth
- +1.3%
Full market page →
TX
Austin
- HPI YoY
- -0.8%
- Permits YoY
- -34.0%
- Unemployment
- 3.4%
- Pop. growth
- +2.7%
Full market page →
NC
Charlotte
- HPI YoY
- +2.5%
- Permits YoY
- +37.7%
- Unemployment
- 3.5%
- Pop. growth
- +1.9%
Full market page →
TX
Dallas-Fort Worth
- HPI YoY
- +1.1%
- Permits YoY
- -35.4%
- Unemployment
- 3.8%
- Pop. growth
- +1.5%
Full market page →
TX
Houston
- HPI YoY
- +1.3%
- Permits YoY
- -22.4%
- Unemployment
- 4.3%
- Pop. growth
- +1.7%
Full market page →
FL
Jacksonville
- HPI YoY
- +3.2%
- Permits YoY
- +33.8%
- Unemployment
- 4.8%
- Pop. growth
- +1.5%
Full market page →
TN
Nashville
- HPI YoY
- +3.2%
- Permits YoY
- +19.8%
- Unemployment
- 3%
- Pop. growth
- +1.6%
Full market page →
FL
Orlando
- HPI YoY
- +2.5%
- Permits YoY
- -21.7%
- Unemployment
- 4.5%
- Pop. growth
- +1.3%
Full market page →
AZ
Phoenix
- HPI YoY
- +2.4%
- Permits YoY
- -36.5%
- Unemployment
- 4.1%
- Pop. growth
- +1.1%
Full market page →
NC
Raleigh
- HPI YoY
- +1.0%
- Permits YoY
- +59.7%
- Unemployment
- 3%
- Pop. growth
- +2.4%
Full market page →
TX
San Antonio
- HPI YoY
- +1.4%
- Permits YoY
- -21.4%
- Unemployment
- 4.1%
- Pop. growth
- +1.4%
Full market page →
FL
Tampa
- HPI YoY
- +1.9%
- Permits YoY
- -9.3%
- Unemployment
- 4.7%
- Pop. growth
- +0.4%
Full market page →
Methodology
How this report is built
Sources: FHFA House Price Index (quarterly, all-transactions), U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey (monthly), BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics (monthly), and U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates (annual) — all retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. HUD 2-bedroom Fair Market Rent retrieved directly from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development User API. All series are public-domain US government data; no proprietary data sources are used. This report reflects the latest snapshot as of April 2026.
SunBeltPulse is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FHFA, U.S. Census Bureau, BLS, or HUD.
Editorial framing — what the numbers mean, where the corrections are, who has leverage — is added on top of the raw data by SunBeltPulse editorial. The rankings themselves are not editorial: they are sorted by the underlying numeric values, top to bottom, with no curation.
Metrics defined
- Median home price
- The median active listing price (not closing price) across all single-family homes listed on the MLS for the MSA.
- Year-over-year / month-over-month
- Percent change in median listing price versus the same month one year ago, or the prior month.
- Active listings
- Total homes on the market in the MSA at month-end.
- Months of supply
- Active listings divided by new listings — how many months it would take to clear inventory at the current selling pace. Below 4–5 is a seller's market.
- Days on market
- Median time a listing spends active before leaving the market.
- Cash buyer percentage
- Share of all sales closed without mortgage financing. Higher percentages indicate more investor and relocator competition.
Full data sourcing and editorial policy on our disclosure page.