Sun Belt Housing Market Report
The 2026 Sun Belt Housing Market Report
Twelve Sun Belt metros — Phoenix to Raleigh, Austin to Tampa — ranked on five public-domain housing market indicators: FHFA home price index, population growth, building permits, unemployment, and Fair Market Rents.
Data as of September 2026 · FHFA, U.S. Census, BLS, HUD · SunBeltPulse Editorial
What the data says
The Sun Belt housing market is diverging
Across the twelve metros we track, the FHFA House Price Index ranges from -0.5% year-over-year in San Antonio to +3.4% in Houston as of Q2 2026. That 3.9-point spread reflects very different local stories — some markets are still climbing, others have begun to give back gains from the pandemic-era boom.
The migration story is real and measurable. Raleigh leads population growth at +2.36% year-over-year, and San Antonio is responding with the strongest permit activity in the cohort (+48.1% YoY). Job markets range from Raleigh at 2.7% to Houston at 4.6% unemployment (Sep 2026); the national rate (not seasonally adjusted) was 4.0% (BLS, Sep 2026).
This report ranks all twelve metros across the public-domain government data series that capture the housing market most directly: FHFA House Price Index, U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey, BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, and HUD Fair Market Rents. No proprietary data, no paywalls — the methodology is at the bottom of this page.
The headline ranking
Sun Belt metros, ranked by FHFA HPI year-over-year change
FHFA House Price Index YoY change
Houston leads at +3.4% YoY; San Antonio is the deepest correction at -0.5%.
FHFA House Price Index YoY change. Ranked top to bottom: 1. Houston — +3.4%; 2. Nashville — +1.6%; 3. Charlotte — +1.5%; 4. Raleigh — +1.1%; 5. Tampa div. — +1.1%; 6. Atlanta div. — +1.0%; 7. Orlando — +0.8%; 8. Phoenix — +0.8%; 9. Dallas div. — +0.5%; 10. Austin — +0.3%; 11. Jacksonville — +0.1%; 12. San Antonio — -0.5%.
| Rank | Metro | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston | +3.4% |
| 2 | Nashville | +1.6% |
| 3 | Charlotte | +1.5% |
| 4 | Raleigh | +1.1% |
| 5 | Tampa div. | +1.1% |
| 6 | Atlanta div. | +1.0% |
| 7 | Orlando | +0.8% |
| 8 | Phoenix | +0.8% |
| 9 | Dallas div. | +0.5% |
| 10 | Austin | +0.3% |
| 11 | Jacksonville | +0.1% |
| 12 | San Antonio | -0.5% |
“div.” marks a metro FHFA publishes only as metropolitan divisions; its row is the larger one: Atlanta (Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell division), Dallas-Fort Worth (Dallas-Plano-Irving division), Tampa (Tampa division).
Four more ways to read the market
Where the leverage is — by metric
Where buyers have the most leverage (HPI YoY)
San Antonio leads the correction at -0.5% YoY — the deepest pull-back in the cohort.
Where buyers have the most leverage (HPI YoY). Ranked top to bottom: 1. San Antonio — -0.5%; 2. Jacksonville — +0.1%; 3. Austin — +0.3%; 4. Dallas div. — +0.5%; 5. Orlando — +0.8%; 6. Phoenix — +0.8%; 7. Atlanta div. — +1.0%; 8. Raleigh — +1.1%; 9. Tampa div. — +1.1%; 10. Charlotte — +1.5%; 11. Nashville — +1.6%; 12. Houston — +3.4%.
| Rank | Metro | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Antonio | -0.5% |
| 2 | Jacksonville | +0.1% |
| 3 | Austin | +0.3% |
| 4 | Dallas div. | +0.5% |
| 5 | Orlando | +0.8% |
| 6 | Phoenix | +0.8% |
| 7 | Atlanta div. | +1.0% |
| 8 | Raleigh | +1.1% |
| 9 | Tampa div. | +1.1% |
| 10 | Charlotte | +1.5% |
| 11 | Nashville | +1.6% |
| 12 | Houston | +3.4% |
Where people are moving (population YoY)
Raleigh leads at +2.36% year-over-year population growth.
Where people are moving (population YoY). Ranked top to bottom: 1. Raleigh — +2.36%; 2. Austin — +2.10%; 3. Charlotte — +1.88%; 4. Houston — +1.63%; 5. Nashville — +1.60%; 6. Jacksonville — +1.49%; 7. Dallas-Fort Worth — +1.48%; 8. San Antonio — +1.38%; 9. Orlando — +1.29%; 10. Phoenix — +1.14%; 11. Atlanta — +0.96%; 12. Tampa — +0.40%.
| Rank | Metro | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raleigh | +2.36% |
| 2 | Austin | +2.10% |
| 3 | Charlotte | +1.88% |
| 4 | Houston | +1.63% |
| 5 | Nashville | +1.60% |
| 6 | Jacksonville | +1.49% |
| 7 | Dallas-Fort Worth | +1.48% |
| 8 | San Antonio | +1.38% |
| 9 | Orlando | +1.29% |
| 10 | Phoenix | +1.14% |
| 11 | Atlanta | +0.96% |
| 12 | Tampa | +0.40% |
Where supply is expanding (permits YoY)
San Antonio leads permit activity at +48.1% YoY — the strongest construction response.
Where supply is expanding (permits YoY). Ranked top to bottom: 1. San Antonio — +48.1%; 2. Austin — +24.2%; 3. Tampa — +17.9%; 4. Nashville — +3.9%; 5. Dallas-Fort Worth — -7.0%; 6. Atlanta — -13.1%; 7. Raleigh — -19.0%; 8. Orlando — -22.2%; 9. Jacksonville — -22.9%; 10. Charlotte — -24.3%; 11. Houston — -28.7%; 12. Phoenix — -42.0%.
| Rank | Metro | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Antonio | +48.1% |
| 2 | Austin | +24.2% |
| 3 | Tampa | +17.9% |
| 4 | Nashville | +3.9% |
| 5 | Dallas-Fort Worth | -7.0% |
| 6 | Atlanta | -13.1% |
| 7 | Raleigh | -19.0% |
| 8 | Orlando | -22.2% |
| 9 | Jacksonville | -22.9% |
| 10 | Charlotte | -24.3% |
| 11 | Houston | -28.7% |
| 12 | Phoenix | -42.0% |
Tightest job markets (unemployment rate)
Raleigh sits at 2.7% unemployment — the tightest labor market in the cohort.
Tightest job markets (unemployment rate). Ranked top to bottom: 1. Raleigh — 2.7%; 2. Nashville — 2.9%; 3. Charlotte — 3.3%; 4. Atlanta — 3.5%; 5. Austin — 3.7%; 6. Dallas-Fort Worth — 4.1%; 7. Orlando — 4.2%; 8. San Antonio — 4.3%; 9. Tampa — 4.3%; 10. Phoenix — 4.4%; 11. Jacksonville — 4.5%; 12. Houston — 4.6%.
| Rank | Metro | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raleigh | 2.7% |
| 2 | Nashville | 2.9% |
| 3 | Charlotte | 3.3% |
| 4 | Atlanta | 3.5% |
| 5 | Austin | 3.7% |
| 6 | Dallas-Fort Worth | 4.1% |
| 7 | Orlando | 4.2% |
| 8 | San Antonio | 4.3% |
| 9 | Tampa | 4.3% |
| 10 | Phoenix | 4.4% |
| 11 | Jacksonville | 4.5% |
| 12 | Houston | 4.6% |
The full picture
All 12 metros, every metric — sortable
Click any column header to sort. Click any metro name to dig into its full market page.
| Houston, TX | 414.2 | +3.4% | +0.8% | 3,651 | -28.7% | 4.6% | +1.63% | $1,497 |
| Nashville, TN | 485.3 | +1.6% | +0.1% | 1,549 | +3.9% | 2.9% | +1.60% | $1,798 |
| Charlotte, NC | 412.4 | +1.5% | +0.3% | 1,200 | -24.3% | 3.3% | +1.88% | $1,785 |
| Raleigh, NC | 367.2 | +1.1% | -0.1% | 964 | -19.0% | 2.7% | +2.36% | $1,689 |
| Tampa, FL | 516.6‡ | +1.1%‡ | -0.4%‡ | 2,126 | +17.9% | 4.3% | +0.40% | $1,917 |
| Atlanta, GA | 374.5‡ | +1.0%‡ | -0.4%‡ | 3,044 | -13.1% | 3.5% | +0.96% | $1,762 |
| Orlando, FL | 457.1 | +0.8% | -0.5% | 1,574 | -22.2% | 4.2% | +1.29% | $1,959 |
| Phoenix, AZ | 517.1 | +0.8% | -0.4% | 1,685 | -42.0% | 4.4% | +1.14% | $1,734 |
| Dallas-Fort Worth, TX | 426.4‡ | +0.5%‡ | -0.3%‡ | 5,115 | -7.0% | 4.1% | +1.48% | $1,807 |
| Austin, TX | 506.3 | +0.3% | +0.9% | 3,257 | +24.2% | 3.7% | +2.10% | $1,817 |
| Jacksonville, FL | 458.9 | +0.1% | -1.3% | 879 | -22.9% | 4.5% | +1.49% | $1,694 |
| San Antonio, TX | 378.4 | -0.5% | +0.5% | 952 | +48.1% | 4.3% | +1.38% | $1,441 |
‡ HPI columns show one metropolitan division: Atlanta (Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell division), Dallas-Fort Worth (Dallas-Plano-Irving division), Tampa (Tampa division).
Go deeper
Every metro, at a glance
GA
Atlanta
- Atlanta div. HPI YoY
- +1.0%
- Permits YoY
- -13.1%
- Unemployment
- 3.5%
- Pop. growth
- +0.96%
Full market page →
TX
Austin
- HPI YoY
- +0.3%
- Permits YoY
- +24.2%
- Unemployment
- 3.7%
- Pop. growth
- +2.10%
Full market page →
NC
Charlotte
- HPI YoY
- +1.5%
- Permits YoY
- -24.3%
- Unemployment
- 3.3%
- Pop. growth
- +1.88%
Full market page →
TX
Dallas-Fort Worth
- Dallas div. HPI YoY
- +0.5%
- Permits YoY
- -7.0%
- Unemployment
- 4.1%
- Pop. growth
- +1.48%
Full market page →
TX
Houston
- HPI YoY
- +3.4%
- Permits YoY
- -28.7%
- Unemployment
- 4.6%
- Pop. growth
- +1.63%
Full market page →
FL
Jacksonville
- HPI YoY
- +0.1%
- Permits YoY
- -22.9%
- Unemployment
- 4.5%
- Pop. growth
- +1.49%
Full market page →
TN
Nashville
- HPI YoY
- +1.6%
- Permits YoY
- +3.9%
- Unemployment
- 2.9%
- Pop. growth
- +1.60%
Full market page →
FL
Orlando
- HPI YoY
- +0.8%
- Permits YoY
- -22.2%
- Unemployment
- 4.2%
- Pop. growth
- +1.29%
Full market page →
AZ
Phoenix
- HPI YoY
- +0.8%
- Permits YoY
- -42.0%
- Unemployment
- 4.4%
- Pop. growth
- +1.14%
Full market page →
NC
Raleigh
- HPI YoY
- +1.1%
- Permits YoY
- -19.0%
- Unemployment
- 2.7%
- Pop. growth
- +2.36%
Full market page →
TX
San Antonio
- HPI YoY
- -0.5%
- Permits YoY
- +48.1%
- Unemployment
- 4.3%
- Pop. growth
- +1.38%
Full market page →
FL
Tampa
- Tampa div. HPI YoY
- +1.1%
- Permits YoY
- +17.9%
- Unemployment
- 4.3%
- Pop. growth
- +0.40%
Full market page →
Head to head
Compare any two Sun Belt metros
Rankings show the field; a head-to-head shows your shortlist. Cost of living, home prices, rents, taxes, jobs, and climate — side by side.
Methodology
How this report is built
Sources: FHFA House Price Index (quarterly, all-transactions), U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey (monthly), BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics (monthly), and U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates (annual) — all retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, except Atlanta's and Tampa's metropolitan-division house price indexes, which come directly from FHFA. HUD 2-bedroom Fair Market Rent retrieved directly from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development User API. All series are public-domain US government data; no proprietary data sources are used. This report reflects the latest snapshot as of September 2026.
SunBeltPulse is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FHFA, U.S. Census Bureau, BLS, or HUD.
Editorial framing — what the numbers mean, where the corrections are, who has leverage — is added on top of the raw data by SunBeltPulse editorial. The rankings themselves are not editorial: they are sorted by the underlying numeric values, top to bottom, with no curation.
Prices and rents are the inputs; the monthly payment is what a household feels. Our guide The Crossover Year turns these prices into payments: at this week's rate, how much of a first-year payment builds equity in each of the twelve metros, and when a payment first puts more toward principal than interest.
Metrics defined
One entry for each column of the table above, in the table's order.
- HPI Index
- FHFA all-transactions house price index for the metro: a repeat-sales index of single-family price change, not a dollar price (the series are indexed to 1995 Q1 = 100). Quarterly. Where FHFA publishes a metro only as metropolitan divisions, the table shows the larger division. Source: FHFA House Price Index.
- HPI YoY
- Percent change in the house price index against the same quarter one year earlier. Source: FHFA House Price Index.
- HPI QoQ
- Percent change in the house price index against the previous quarter. Source: FHFA House Price Index.
- Permits/mo
- New private housing units authorized by building permits in the metro in the latest month: units authorized, not units started or completed. Source: Census Building Permits Survey.
- Permits YoY
- Percent change in monthly units authorized against the same month one year earlier. Source: Census Building Permits Survey.
- Unemp.
- Unemployment rate of the metro's labor force in the latest month. Not seasonally adjusted, except Phoenix and San Antonio, which BLS publishes seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics.
- Pop. YoY
- Year-over-year growth of the metro's resident population in the Census Bureau's annual July 1 estimates, which run about a year behind the other series. Source: Census Population Estimates.
- 2BR FMR
- HUD Fair Market Rent for a two-bedroom unit in the metro, set annually by fiscal year: the benchmark for housing-voucher payment standards, not a survey of asking rents. Source: HUD Fair Market Rent.
Full data sourcing and editorial policy on our disclosure page.