
Phoenix Housing Market, October 2026: Mortgage Rates Reach 7.40% as Home Values Slip 1.1%
Rates reached 7.40% as Phoenix home values slipped 1.1%. See what that adds to the payment on a $440,821 home and how to negotiate it back.
Data-driven reporting on Sun Belt real estate markets, migration trends, and investment opportunities.
Latest

Rates reached 7.40% as Phoenix home values slipped 1.1%. See what that adds to the payment on a $440,821 home and how to negotiate it back.

Nashville violent crime fell 16.7% and Charlotte overall crime fell 16% in the first half of 2026. What the police data can and can't tell you.

Jacksonville's Duval County Citizens insurance average is falling in 2026. Here's how flood risk shapes your real budget.
More Articles

Tampa new builds sold for $198/sq ft vs $226 for resale in July 2026, per Zillow, roughly $56,000 less on a 2,000 sq ft home by our math.

U-Haul's 2026 midyear data puts DFW, Houston and Orlando atop millennial moves, while Census shows North Carolina gaining 84,064 domestic movers.

Houston added 44,700 jobs in the year to August 2026, more than any other U.S. metro. Here's which sectors are hiring and what that means for a move.

Austin permits fell 25.3% and San Antonio 24.1% year over year — 44 straight months of national declines are thinning the Sun Belt buyer pipeline.

The Fed hiked rates 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% on Sept. 16, pushing the 30-year fixed to 6.95% — here's what it means for Dallas, Nashville, and Tampa buyers.

Atlanta's FY2026 investment record hit $35.2B and 25,300 new jobs. Here's what the data-centre boom means for your relocation decision.

Zillow ranks Jacksonville #1 and San Antonio #3 for first-time buyers in 2026. San Antonio's median sale price is $265,000, 35% below the national median.

Charlotte added about 14,900 jobs in the year to April 2026 (+1.1%), roughly twice the U.S. pace, per Piedmont Crescent Capital. What it means for a move.

Orlando added 20,600 jobs in the year ending June 2026, leading every Florida metro. Here's what the numbers mean if you're moving to Orlando FL.
Austin added ~8,300 net new tech jobs in 2026, led by AI and semiconductor roles at Tesla, Apple, Samsung, and Nvidia — here's the relocation case.

Houston adds 39,700 jobs but carries a $7,855 insurance bill; Dallas adds 54,600 at $5,890. The full 2026 cost stack for Texas relocators.

North Carolina led all 50 states with +84,064 net domestic migrants in 2025. What that demand means for Raleigh and Charlotte home buyers in 2026.

Oracle's East Bank campus adds 8,500 Nashville jobs at $110K average pay by 2031 — reshaping housing demand in Davidson, Williamson and Wilson counties.

RealPage projects Austin as the No. 1 U.S. job market for 2026 at 1.6% growth (vs 0.4% nationally) after 27,200 new jobs in 2025. It's no longer just tech.

San Antonio's cost-of-living index sits 8–9% below the national average — and more than $3,800/yr cheaper in rent than Austin. Here's the full breakdown.

Dallas-Fort Worth is projected to add 11,013 net tech jobs in 2026 — second only to New York. Here's what that means if you're considering a move.

Charlotte landed 3,880 new jobs and $424M in investment in 2025 — its best recruitment year in a decade. Here's what that means for housing demand.

Citizens wind-coverage policies must add flood insurance by Jan 1, 2027. Duval NFIP averages $768/yr; FL average $878–$938. Orlando, Tampa & Jax costs.

Orlando added 37,690 residents in the year to July 2025 (+1.3%, down from 2.0%) and 284,300 since 2020 — 65% from abroad. What it means for 2026 buyers.

Zillow ranked Jacksonville #1 of 50 large U.S. metros for first-time buyers in 2026, with a $305K median sale price vs Tampa's $443K. What the data shows.

Rutherford County added ~45,000 residents since 2020 (+13%), Wilson +18%, Williamson +24,000. How to pick a Nashville suburb for a family move in 2026.

Texas raised its homestead exemption to $140,000, retroactive to 2025 — worth $320–$400 a year to existing filers in Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Austin.

Atlanta's 2BR Fair Market Rent is $1,820, insurance averages $2,172/yr and utilities $252/mo. The real monthly cost stack for relocators in 2026.

Raleigh home values fell 2.1% YoY to $436K as inventory climbs — here's what mid-2026 data tells active buyers about offers and timing.

Orlando sits 9% below the national cost-of-living average — but renters, buyers, and grocery shoppers each get a very different city.

Travis County posted 5% permit growth in 2025 while Austin's suburbs pulled back — a two-speed construction market reshaping the metro's price map.

Pinellas County fell to 948,563 residents (July 2025 Census estimate), down 11,834 in a year — 2nd-largest loss in the U.S. What it means for Tampa buyers.

DFW payrolls rebounded to +41,900 jobs YoY in January 2026 while wages grew just 1.8% vs 3.4% nationally — a split that reshapes the relocation calculus.

Phoenix homes averaged 82 days on market in April 2026, up 55% YoY from 53 days — here's what the widening ask-to-close gap means for investors.

Austin flipped from top pandemic migration destination to net-outbound. Redfin Q4 2025 data shows the boomerang effect hitting supply and prices.

Phoenix's 5.2% YoY price drop is the cycle's steepest — but with closed sales volume rising and Zillow at $405K, the read isn't a crash.

Phoenix homes averaged 70 days on market in 2025, up from 57, but the metro splits: 27 days in core corridors vs 80–100 in Maricopa and Queen Creek.

Jacksonville's months of supply fell from 6.1 in January to 3.9 in March 2026. What the NEFAR, Houzeo and FRED data show — and why the numbers diverge.

Comal ISD (B, 87) and Schertz-Cibolo ISD lead San Antonio's 2025 TEA ratings; no district earned an A, and SAISD, Northside and North East got Cs.

Hundreds of thousands of homes sit in Houston's FEMA flood zones. Here's what every buyer must know before closing — coverage, cost, and 2025 risk.

C2ER data puts Raleigh's overall cost of living roughly 3% below the national average — with housing and utilities also running below the U.S. norm.

Atlanta flipped from net domestic inflow to outflow in 2024 — a 30-year first. Here's what the data means for price trajectory and demand.

DFW claimed 11 net interstate HQ relocations in 2025, more than any other U.S. metro. Here's what the pipeline signals for white-collar housing demand.

Austin's median rent fell from $1,546 to $1,296 after 120,000 new units — a 19% real decline, per Pew. Where the floor is for renters and investors.

Charlotte led every large U.S. metro in nonfarm payroll growth at +2.7% YoY through December 2025. Here's what that means for housing demand.

Florida homeowners insurance is finally easing: Citizens hit a 14-year low and rate hikes collapsed from 21% to 0.2%. What it means for Tampa buyers.

Phoenix's net domestic inflow rose to 21,364 in 2024 and Maricopa County added 57,471 residents — a counter-trend gain as Tampa and Austin retreated.

Mortgage payments ran 8.4% below year-ago levels in early 2026, but payment-to-income ratios across five Sun Belt metros show a gap rate cuts won't close.

AEI projects 0% to –1% in 2026, –2% in 2027 and 2028. Here's what that means in real dollars, and whether waiting pencils out across five Sun Belt metros.

Charlotte led large U.S. metros with 2.7% YoY job growth through late 2025 while Texas stagnated. What CBRE's HQ relocation data means for housing in 2026.

Tampa's net domestic inflow fell ~70% in 2024 to about 10,000, the steepest drop among the 50 largest U.S. metros. What it means for inventory and prices.

AEI's HPA index puts national price growth at 1.1% YoY, lowest since 2013, turning negative in April 2026. Where Phoenix, Austin, Tampa and Nashville sit.

Austin has about 15,488 active listings and Tampa 18,000+, well above the 4–6 month norm in key submarkets. What it means for pricing and yields in 2026.

Nashville's active listings surged 193% YoY to 6,562 homes, pushing months of supply to 5.58. What near-balanced conditions mean in dollar terms.

65.9% of Phoenix listings took price cuts in February 2026 (Houzeo) even as domestic migration keeps rising. What the paradox means for buyers.

Tampa led the Case-Shiller composite with 13 straight months of annual price declines through Nov 2025. The full data portrait of a structural repricing.

Phoenix months of supply topped 3.0 in early 2025, up from 1.2 in 2022, and stayed buyer-leaning into 2026. What shifted, and where the opportunity is.

Charlotte added 57,000+ net migrants in a year (about 157 people a day), but housing permits haven't kept pace. We map the pressure points and overflow.

Tampa Bay homeowners now pay roughly $5,000 a year for home insurance — for many, more than property tax. We break down the numbers by zip code.

Austin home prices fell about 25% from a $550K May 2022 peak to roughly $410K. We weigh whether the bottom is in — and the FHFA index just turned positive.

Nashville permitted nearly 20,000 residential units in 2024. From downtown megaprojects to Williamson County master-planned communities: where growth is.