DFW, Houston and Orlando Lead U-Haul's 2026 Millennial Moves: What the Data Says About Where Americans Are Heading

Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and Orlando topped U-Haul's millennial rankings in its 2026 Midyear Migration Trends report, which tracks one-way moves from July 2025 through June 2026 and breaks them down by generation (Source: U-Haul 2026 Midyear Migration Trends, July 2025–June 2026). If you're weighing a Sun Belt move, the trucks are worth a look.

A truck isn't a resident, though. This guide checks U-Haul's rankings against Census population estimates, then gives you a rent and price snapshot for six Sun Belt metros.

Where the Trucks Are Heading

U-Haul ranks states and metros by their net gain of one-way trucks, trailers and U-Box containers. Here's what stood out for July 2025 through June 2026:

• Boomers: South Carolina, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona and Alabama were the top five net-gain states. Phoenix ranked third among boomer metros (Source: U-Haul 2026 Midyear Migration Trends, July 2025–June 2026).
• Millennials: Dallas-Fort Worth ranked first among metros, Houston second and Orlando third (Source: U-Haul 2026 Midyear Migration Trends, July 2025–June 2026).
• Gen Z: Dallas-Fort Worth ranked second among metros, Charlotte seventh and Houston tenth (Source: U-Haul 2026 Midyear Migration Trends, July 2025–June 2026).
• All four generations: Florida was the only state in every generation's top 10 (Source: U-Haul 2026 Midyear Migration Trends, July 2025–June 2026).

Millennials and Gen X together made up more than 60% of U-Haul rentals (Source: U-Haul via Fortune, July 2025–June 2026).

Keep the limits in mind. U-Haul counts equipment, not people, so a studio move and a four-bedroom move each register once. Households that hire full-service movers don't show up at all.

Checking the Trucks Against the Census

The Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 estimates count people, and they mostly back up the trucks.

North Carolina led every state in net domestic migration with 84,064 movers, followed by Texas at 67,299 and South Carolina at 66,622 (Source: Census Bureau via NAR, July 2024–July 2025). Arizona added 31,107 (Source: Census Bureau via Tennessee State Data Center, July 2024–July 2025).

Florida is where the two datasets split. It made U-Haul's top 10 for every generation, yet its net domestic gain was 22,517, eighth among states (Source: Census Bureau via Tennessee State Data Center, July 2024–July 2025).

The windows differ, though. U-Haul's runs July 2025–June 2026 and these Census figures cover July 2024–July 2025, so the gap may reflect timing as much as a real divergence. It's worth watching.

United Van Lines' 2025 National Movers Study now labels Texas and Florida "balanced," meaning inbound and outbound moves are nearly equal (Source: United Van Lines National Movers Study, 2025). The company tied the shift to rising housing costs.

The national backdrop is cooler, too. U.S. population grew 0.5%, or 1.8 million people (Source: Census Bureau, July 2024–July 2025), the slowest pace since the early pandemic. Net international migration fell to 1.3 million from 2.7 million a year earlier (Source: Census Bureau, July 2024–July 2025).

IRS migration data, built from tax-return address changes, lags both sources, so treat it as a long-run check on your target county.

Six Metros at a Glance

Dallas-Fort Worth. Dallas-Plano-Irving prices rose 0.5% year over year but slipped 0.3% on the quarter (Source: FHFA House Price Index, Q2 2026). Rent: $1,931 (Source: HUD Fair Market Rents, FY2026).

Houston. The strongest price gain, 3.4% year over year (Source: FHFA House Price Index, Q2 2026), and the lowest rent, $1,573 (Source: HUD Fair Market Rents, FY2026). Unemployment is 5.1% (Source: BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics, July 2026, not seasonally adjusted).

Orlando. The highest rent here, $1,972 (Source: HUD Fair Market Rents, FY2026). Prices rose 0.8% year over year but fell 0.5% on the quarter (Source: FHFA House Price Index, Q2 2026).

Charlotte. FHFA home prices rose 1.5% year over year (Source: FHFA House Price Index, Q2 2026). A two-bedroom Fair Market Rent runs $1,686 (Source: HUD Fair Market Rents, FY2026).

Raleigh. Population grew 2.36%, the fastest of the six (Source: Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2025). Prices rose 1.1% year over year but slipped 0.1% on the quarter (Source: FHFA House Price Index, Q2 2026). Rent: $1,750 (Source: HUD Fair Market Rents, FY2026).

Phoenix. Prices are up 0.8% year over year and down 0.4% on the quarter (Source: FHFA House Price Index, Q2 2026). Rent: $1,839 (Source: HUD Fair Market Rents, FY2026).

Torn between the Carolinas? The Charlotte vs Raleigh housing comparison puts them side by side.

Competition or Leverage: Reading the Momentum

Migration tells you who you'll be bidding against. Prices tell you whether sellers are still winning.

• Strong inflow plus rising prices means competition. Houston fits: second for millennial movers and the biggest price gain of the six.
• Steady growth plus slipping prices means leverage. Raleigh, Phoenix, Orlando and Dallas-Fort Worth all gained population (Source: Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2025) while quarterly prices dipped, on the Dallas-Plano-Irving panel in DFW's case.

Rates squeeze both scenarios. The 30-year fixed averaged 7.28% (Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week of October 1, 2026), which thins the buyer pool everywhere.

Your next step: set your current rent beside the two-bedroom Fair Market Rents above, which run from $1,573 in Houston to $1,972 in Orlando (Source: HUD Fair Market Rents, FY2026), to see which finalists fit your housing budget. Considering Raleigh? Start with our Raleigh buyer's guide to price cuts and inventory.