Dallas vs Orlando

**Home-Price Appreciation** — Both markets are showing modest appreciation as of Q2 2026, but neither is running hot. Dallas-Fort Worth is split across two FHFA divisions: Dallas-Plano-Irving posted +0.5% year-over-year and -0.3% quarter-over-quarter, while Fort Worth-Arlington-Grapevine came in at +0.7% YoY and +0.1% QoQ, both as of Q2 2026. Orlando (Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford) recorded +0.8% YoY and -0.5% QoQ as of Q2 2026 — marginally stronger annual appreciation than either DFW division, but with a steeper quarterly pullback. Both metros experienced the same broad arc: explosive gains through mid-2022 followed by a plateau, and appreciation has essentially flatlined in recent quarters. The HPI series is an appreciation index, not a dollar price, so these percentages reflect relative momentum, not absolute value. Dallas's ACS-measured median home value was $389,500 vs. Orlando's $409,400 (both 2024 ACS), meaning Orlando's price level is somewhat higher despite its slightly lower cost-of-living index.

**Construction & Supply** — Dallas-Fort Worth remains one of the most active construction markets in the country, issuing 4,675 permits in July 2026 — down 10.5% versus July 2025 (Census BPS). Even with that pullback, July's DFW volume is roughly 2.3× Orlando's. Orlando issued 2,008 permits in July 2026, down just 3.6% from a year earlier (Census BPS). The diverging trend lines matter: DFW's supply pipeline is contracting from a much higher base, which could provide gradual relief to inventory pressure, while Orlando's shallower decline suggests its new-construction pace has already normalized to a lower equilibrium. Elevated supply has been a key reason DFW price appreciation has stalled — suburbs across Collin, Denton, and Tarrant counties continue to absorb large volumes of new homes.

**Labor Markets & Income** — Both metros have seen unemployment drift higher over the past year. DFW's rate was 4.6% in July 2026 (not seasonally adjusted, BLS LAUS), up from 4.2% a year earlier in July 2025. Orlando's rate was 4.7% in July 2026, up from 4.1% a year earlier in July 2025 — a larger 0.6-point rise versus DFW's 0.4-point rise. Median household income is meaningfully higher in DFW: $92,733 vs. Orlando's $81,044 (both Census ACS 1-year estimates, 2024), a gap of roughly $11,700. That income advantage matters when evaluating affordability relative to similar home price levels. Both states levy no income tax on wages (Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts and Florida Department of Revenue, 2026 tax year), so workers in both metros keep the same share of gross pay from a state-tax perspective.

**Rentals, Cost of Living & Property Taxes** — Rental costs are nearly identical: DFW's HUD 2-bedroom Fair Market Rent is $1,931/month vs. Orlando's $1,972/month (both FY2026), a difference of just $41/month. Cost of living is also close — DFW's BEA price level is 103.1 vs. Orlando's 101.4 (US = 100, BEA Regional Price Parities, 2024), a gap under 3%. Where the two markets diverge sharply is property tax: DFW carries a 1.44% effective rate vs. Orlando's 0.74% effective rate (both Census ACS 1-year estimates, 2024, with homestead exemptions already reflected). That 0.70-percentage-point difference translates to roughly $2,800 more per year on a $400,000 home — a real and recurring cost advantage for Orlando owners. Population growth is running at +1.48% YoY in DFW vs. +1.29% in Orlando (both 2025 Census estimates), reflecting DFW's scale as a larger and faster-growing metro (8.48M vs. 2.96M residents, 2025 Census estimates).