Orlando vs Raleigh

**Price Trends & Valuation** Orlando's median home price sits at $419,000 as of March 2026, down 0.2% year-over-year, while Raleigh's median of $449,900 is up 1.1% over the same period — a $30,900 gap that has widened modestly over the past 24 months. Orlando's price series tells a clear story of deterioration and partial stabilization: it peaked near $444,500 in June 2024, slid to a trough of $415,000 in early 2026, and has only just nudged back to $419,000. Raleigh followed a similar seasonal arc but from a higher floor, troughing at $435,962 in February 2025 before recovering to its current level. Notably, Orlando's cost-of-living index of 90.6 versus Raleigh's 95 (both below the U.S. average of 100) partially offsets the sticker-price difference, and Orlando buyers benefit from Florida's zero state income tax versus North Carolina's flat 4.75% rate — a meaningful annual cash-flow difference for higher-income households. Raleigh's median household income of $102,144 runs about $21,000 above Orlando's $81,044, suggesting its higher prices are better supported by local purchasing power.

**Inventory & Supply Conditions** These two markets are operating in fundamentally different supply environments right now. Raleigh has 4,709 active listings at just 1.6 months of supply — firmly in seller's-market territory, where balanced conditions are typically defined as 4–6 months. Orlando's 13,222 active listings at 3.0 months of supply represent nearly three times the raw inventory and nearly double the supply ratio. Orlando's inventory rebuilt steadily throughout 2024, touching 4.5 months at the December 2024 seasonal peak before pulling back, and the trajectory of monthly supply readings from 2.1 in April 2024 to a range of 3.0–3.8 through most of late 2025 signals a structural shift toward buyer-friendlier conditions. Raleigh, by contrast, compressed back to 1.6 months by March 2026 after briefly touching 3.8 months in December 2024, suggesting its inventory bulge was transitory. That compression means Raleigh buyers face more competition and less negotiating leverage than their Orlando counterparts.

**Market Velocity & Buyer/Seller Dynamics** Days on market quantify that leverage gap directly: homes in Orlando are sitting for 67 days on average versus 46 days in Raleigh — a 45% longer marketing period. That extra time translates into more opportunity for price negotiation, inspection contingencies, and seller concessions in Orlando. Raleigh's faster absorption, combined with its tighter supply, keeps sellers in a stronger position. Cash buyers make up 28% of Orlando transactions versus 20% in Raleigh; Orlando's elevated cash share historically reflects short-term rental investors, though the market narrative flags that Florida's insurance crisis and tightening STR regulations are reducing that investor cohort — which, if it continues, could remove a source of demand support and put mild additional downward pressure on prices. Raleigh's cash share, while lower, reflects more end-user owner-occupant demand anchored by the Research Triangle's professional workforce.

**Economic Fundamentals & Trade-offs** Both metros offer strong employment backdrops with sub-4% unemployment (Orlando at 3.5%, Raleigh at 3.2%) and no shortage of major employers, but the economic mix differs meaningfully. Orlando's largest single employer — Walt Disney World with 80,000+ workers — is a hospitality anchor that can be sensitive to discretionary consumer spending cycles, though it is balanced by the Lake Nona healthcare and defense/aerospace cluster. Raleigh's foundation is more diversified across government, Research Triangle Park tech tenants (Apple, Google, IBM), three major research universities, and healthcare — a mix historically associated with lower volatility. Orlando's faster raw population growth (2.7% in 2024 alone, fastest among the 30 largest metros) could support long-term demand, but rapid growth also means continued new construction supply entering the market. Raleigh's 12.4% five-year population growth is also strong, and its lower months of supply suggests that new construction along the US-64 and I-540 corridors has not yet outpaced absorption. Both metros are car-dependent with walk scores below 50, and commute times are nearly identical at 27–29 minutes.