Orlando vs Raleigh

**Home-Price Appreciation: Orlando Has More Accumulated Gains, Raleigh Has Steadier Recent Momentum**

Orlando's FHFA HPI posted a 2.5% year-over-year gain as of 2026-Q1, with a 0.9% quarterly uptick — modest by historical standards but positive after a choppy 2025. Looking back, Orlando's index roughly doubled from the mid-200s in 2016–2017 to a pandemic-era peak near 413 in 2022-Q3, then stalled before slowly grinding higher toward 460 by early 2026. That multi-year deceleration reflects rebuilt inventory, Florida's escalating property insurance costs, and fading investor demand as short-term rental regulations tighten. Raleigh's 1.0% YoY gain is softer in absolute terms, but its 1.4% quarterly reading in 2026-Q1 — the highest of either market this cycle — suggests building momentum off a lower base. Raleigh similarly surged through 2021–2022 (from the low-200s to ~339), then gave back some ground in late 2022, and has since been grinding steadily upward through the 360s. Neither market is appreciating rapidly right now; both are in a low-single-digit annual growth regime. Orlando carries a meaningfully higher accumulated index level, suggesting buyers there are entering at a more elevated price point relative to each city's own history, while Raleigh's lower index level reflects a market that — on a relative basis — did not run as hot and has corrected less dramatically.

**Construction Activity: Orlando Builds More, Raleigh Shows Signs of Slowing**

Orlando issued 1,846 permits in May 2026, up 3% year-over-year — a positive signal that builders still see demand worth chasing. Monthly permit counts across the trailing 24 months have been volatile, swinging from a low of 1,044 in November 2025 to a high of 3,632 in January 2025, but the 12-month trend has settled into a range of roughly 1,300–2,500. This volume of supply — for an MSA of 2.94 million — is helping keep price appreciation in check. Raleigh's 1,582-permit May reading is a 6.2% year-over-year decline, and the trailing data shows a similar pattern of volatility with a downward drift since the 2,900-permit peak in August 2024. For a metro of only 1.56 million people growing at 2.36% annually — the faster population pace of the two cities — a pullback in permitting could foreshadow tighter inventory and upward price pressure if demand continues outpacing new supply. Buyers who want newer construction with negotiating leverage may find more options in Orlando today; Raleigh's shrinking pipeline could benefit existing homeowners over the next 12–24 months.

**Labor Markets: Raleigh Is Structurally Tighter, Orlando Has Softened Notably**

Raleigh's unemployment rate of 3.0% in May 2026 has been remarkably stable, fluctuating in a tight 2.9%–3.6% band over the past two years. Its Research Triangle Park anchor — IBM, Cisco, SAS Institute, state government, and major university systems — provides durable, white-collar employment that insulates the market from cyclical swings. Median household income of $102,144 for the Raleigh-Cary MSA is a full $21,000 above Orlando's $81,044, and that income advantage directly supports housing demand at higher price points. Orlando's labor market tells a more cautious story: unemployment was just 3.0% as recently as May 2024 but climbed to 4.9% in January 2026 before edging back to 4.4% by May. That 150-basis-point deterioration over roughly 18 months reflects the hospitality and tourism sector's sensitivity to consumer spending cycles — and it bears watching. Population growth of 1.29% annually in Orlando, while healthy in absolute terms, trails Raleigh's 2.36%, which is among the fastest for any major metro in the country.

**Rental Costs, Taxes, and Cost of Living: Different Trade-Off Profiles**

A HUD-defined 2-bedroom fair market rent of $1,972/month in Orlando compares to $1,750/month in Raleigh — a $222/month or roughly 13% premium for Orlando renters. That gap matters both to tenants weighing buy-vs-rent and to investors underwriting rental yields. On the ownership cost side, Orlando's cost-of-living index of 90.6 is notably below the national average of 100, and Florida's zero state income tax is a meaningful financial benefit — particularly for higher earners relocating from states like New York or California. Raleigh's cost-of-living index of 97 is closer to the national average, and North Carolina imposes a flat 4.5% state income tax, though that rate is scheduled to decrease further. Raleigh's property tax rate of approximately 0.68% (Wake County) is considerably lower than Orlando's ~1.02% (Orange County), which partially offsets the income tax differential. Orlando homeowners also face Florida's well-documented property insurance crisis, which has materially raised total carrying costs in ways that the headline price index does not capture. Both metros are predominantly car-dependent (Walk Scores of ~40 and ~35, respectively), and commute times are nearly identical at 29 and 27 minutes.