Raleigh vs San Antonio

**Home-Price Appreciation: Slow and Steady in Both Markets, with Different Momentum**

Raleigh-Cary and San Antonio-New Braunfels have posted nearly identical FHFA HPI levels as of 2026-Q1 (367.92 vs. 378.07), but their recent trajectories diverge meaningfully. Raleigh is showing modest positive momentum: YoY appreciation of 1.0% and a QoQ gain of 1.4%, suggesting prices are quietly grinding higher after a post-pandemic cooldown. Looking at the 10-year arc, Raleigh's HPI roughly doubled from ~179 in mid-2016 to ~368 today — an impressive long-run compounding, though nearly all of that gain was concentrated in the 2021–2022 surge (the index leapt from ~236 in early 2021 to ~339 by mid-2022). Since that peak, Raleigh has traded in a relatively tight range, recovering gradually. San Antonio tells a similar pandemic story — the HPI climbed from ~279 in early 2021 to ~369 by mid-2022 — but its post-peak behavior is choppier. The market has oscillated between roughly 368 and 383 for over three years, and the most recent quarter shows a QoQ *decline* of -1.3%, even while the YoY reading is a slightly stronger +1.4%. That quarterly dip, combined with a multi-quarter plateau, suggests San Antonio's price appreciation engine is stalling rather than accelerating. Neither market is appreciating at a pace that signals speculative heat; both are best characterized as stable-to-modest growth environments.

**Construction Activity: Raleigh Builds More, San Antonio Builds Better (Relative to Trend)**

Raleigh issued 1,582 permits in May 2026, down 6.2% year-over-year — a meaningful deceleration for a market that was pulling 2,241–2,928 permits per month as recently as mid-2024. That pullback likely reflects builder caution in response to affordability headwinds and normalized demand, but at 1,582 units in a single month, Raleigh is still one of the most actively constructed mid-size metros in the Sun Belt. The pipeline along the US-64 and I-540 corridors continues to add supply, which acts as a ceiling on appreciation. San Antonio, by contrast, issued just 1,013 permits in May 2026 — a much lower absolute volume — but its trend is the opposite: +5.2% YoY. Critically, San Antonio's permit series shows a significant slowdown through mid-2025 (permits fell as low as 482 in November 2025), and the recent uptick to ~900–1,013 represents a tentative recovery. For buyers, Raleigh's heavier supply pipeline means more new-home options and competitive builder incentives, but also more long-term price competition. San Antonio's lower and slowly recovering supply could eventually support price stabilization, but its high property tax rates (2.1%–2.5% of assessed value) blunt the affordability advantage for new construction.

**Labor Markets and Economic Fundamentals: Raleigh Tighter, San Antonio Broader**

Raleigh's unemployment rate of 3.0% (May 2026) reflects a persistently tight labor market anchored by Research Triangle Park's tech and pharmaceutical employers, state government, and major university systems. The rate has fluctuated narrowly between 2.9% and 3.6% over the past two years, showing resilience. Median household income of $102,144 — well above the national median — supports housing demand from high-earning professionals, and population growth of 2.36% YoY (with a cumulative 13.2% gain since 2019) confirms continued in-migration. San Antonio's unemployment sits at 4.1% and has drifted upward steadily from 3.8% in mid-2024, with no monthly reading below 3.8% in the last year. Its employment base — anchored by Joint Base San Antonio, USAA, Valero, Toyota, and a large healthcare sector — is diversified and stable, but the income profile is notably different: a median household income of roughly $66,000–$70,000 versus Raleigh's $102,000+. San Antonio's cost of living index of 91.2 (vs. Raleigh's 97) partially offsets the income gap in real purchasing power terms, and Texas's zero state income tax provides a structural advantage over North Carolina's flat 4.5% rate, which meaningfully affects take-home pay for higher earners. Population growth of 1.38% YoY is healthy but slower than Raleigh's pace.

**Rental Costs and Affordability Trade-offs**

For renters and buy-vs.-rent decision-makers, the gap between these two markets is significant. San Antonio's HUD 2-bedroom Fair Market Rent of $1,426/month is 18.5% below Raleigh's $1,750/month, making it the more accessible entry point for renters building savings toward a down payment. San Antonio also carries a cost-of-living advantage of nearly 6 percentage points relative to Raleigh on a composite basis. However, San Antonio's property tax rates of 2.1%–2.5% of assessed value are among the highest in the nation and substantially erode the monthly cost advantage for homeowners — a 2.3% effective rate on a median-priced home can add hundreds of dollars per month to the all-in housing cost compared to Raleigh's 0.68% Wake County rate. Raleigh's higher rents and income tax are partially counterbalanced by dramatically lower property tax carrying costs. Buyers in both markets should model their full ownership cost carefully: in San Antonio, the sticker-price affordability advantage shrinks considerably once property taxes are factored into a monthly payment.