Orlando vs San Antonio

**Home-Price Appreciation: Orlando Leads, but Both Markets Have Cooled**

Both metros experienced the same pandemic-era price surge, but their trajectories since then diverge in important ways. Orlando's FHFA HPI has appreciated **2.5% year-over-year** through 2026-Q1, with a modest **+0.9% quarter-over-quarter** gain — a soft but positive trend. Looking at the longer arc, Orlando's index roughly doubled from 2016-Q2 to its 2022-Q3 peak, then wobbled through a brief dip before resuming a shallow upward grind. San Antonio tells a choppier story: its HPI is up just **1.4% year-over-year**, but the 2026-Q1 reading actually posted a **-1.3% quarter-over-quarter decline**, suggesting near-term softness. San Antonio's index has been essentially range-bound since mid-2022 — oscillating between roughly 368 and 384 — with no clear breakout. For buyers, Orlando offers slightly more recent price momentum; for buyers concerned about overpaying into a stalling market, San Antonio's already-lower appreciation trajectory may limit downside but also limits near-term equity build.

**Construction Activity: Orlando Builds More, San Antonio Is Slowing**

Orlando issued **1,846 permits** in May 2026, up **3% year-over-year**, though that figure is well below the spike to 3,632 seen in January 2025. The permit series for Orlando shows elevated but volatile supply addition — a reflection of a large, actively building market still digesting recent pipeline. San Antonio's **1,013 permits** in May 2026 represent a **5.2% year-over-year increase**, but the percentage gain masks a much smaller absolute base, and the trend through late 2025 was notably weak — permits fell as low as 482 in November 2025 before recovering. On a per-capita basis (Orlando MSA: ~2.94M; San Antonio MSA: ~2.76M), Orlando is building at nearly double the rate. Heavy supply in Orlando continues to cap price appreciation and supports buyer negotiating leverage; San Antonio's permit recovery bears watching as a potential tightening signal.

**Labor Markets: Diverging Paths Under the Surface**

Orlando's unemployment has risen materially — from a 3.0% annual average in 2024 to **4.4%** by mid-2026, touching 4.9% as recently as January 2026. The tourism and hospitality concentration that drives Orlando's economy is a well-known source of cyclical volatility, and the recent uptick aligns with that pattern. San Antonio presents a notably steadier picture: unemployment has crept from 3.8%–3.9% in early 2024 to **4.1%** by mid-2026, barely moving across two years. The military presence at Joint Base San Antonio (Lackland, Fort Sam Houston, Randolph) acts as a structural employment anchor that insulates the local economy from cyclical swings. Both cities benefit from no state income tax — a meaningful advantage over comparable Sun Belt markets in other states — but San Antonio's median household income of approximately **$66,000–$70,000** trails Orlando's **$81,044**, which is relevant for assessing debt-service capacity and rental demand.

**Rents, Cost of Living, and Investor Calculus**

The rental cost gap between these two markets is significant: Orlando's HUD two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is **$1,972/month**, versus San Antonio's **$1,426/month** — a **38% premium** for Orlando. Both metros have similar cost-of-living indices (Orlando 90.6, San Antonio 91.2, both modestly below the national average), so the rent differential is not simply a reflection of overall living costs. For renters, San Antonio offers a clear affordability edge. For buy-to-rent investors, the calculus depends on acquisition price relative to rent: Orlando's higher rents may support cash flow if purchase prices are appropriately calibrated, but Florida's ongoing insurance cost crisis and tightening short-term rental regulations are headwinds that San Antonio investors do not face to the same degree. San Antonio's property tax rates of **2.1%–2.5%** are notably higher than Orlando's **~1.02%**, which meaningfully affects net operating income in any income property analysis and partially offsets its lower acquisition costs.