Austin vs Orlando

**Home-Price Appreciation** — Austin and Orlando have taken divergent paths since the 2022 peak. Austin's FHFA House Price Index was up just +0.3% year-over-year and +0.9% quarter-over-quarter as of Q2 2026 — a near-flat reading that reflects a multi-year correction after the index peaked around mid-2022 and has been largely sideways ever since. Orlando, by contrast, posted +0.8% year-over-year appreciation as of Q2 2026, but slipped -0.5% quarter-over-quarter in the same period, suggesting momentum is softening even in a market that did not experience Austin's sharp correction. Crucially, Orlando never gave back its pandemic gains the way Austin did — it held closer to its peak and is now decelerating, while Austin bottomed earlier and has stabilized at a meaningfully lower relative level than its 2022 highs. Buyers entering Austin today are getting a more favorable entry point relative to recent peak prices; buyers entering Orlando are paying closer to peak valuations but with modest ongoing appreciation.

**Construction & Labor Markets** — Supply pipelines differ meaningfully. Austin issued 2,605 permits in July 2026, down 10.7% versus July 2025 — a significant pullback that suggests builders are finally moderating after years of extraordinary output. Orlando issued 2,008 permits in July 2026, down only 3.6% versus July 2025, a shallower decline from an already lower base. Austin's cumulative supply overhang — roughly 31,000 apartment units delivered in 2024 alone — continues to weigh on rents and near-term price appreciation; Orlando faces less of that immediate absorption pressure. On labor, Austin's unemployment rate was 4.0% in July 2026, up from 3.6% a year earlier (July 2025), per BLS LAUS. Orlando's unemployment was 4.7% in July 2026, up from 4.1% a year earlier (July 2025). Both markets have seen joblessness rise over the past year, but Orlando's rate is meaningfully higher and its hospitality-heavy employment base adds cyclical sensitivity that Austin's tech-anchored economy does not share to the same degree. Austin's median household income of $99,897 (ACS 2024) is substantially higher than Orlando's $81,044 (ACS 2024), a gap that matters for both purchasing power and long-term demand fundamentals.

**Rental Costs & Cost of Living** — HUD FY2026 Fair Market Rents for a 2-bedroom unit are $1,852/month in Austin and $1,972/month in Orlando — making Orlando roughly $120/month more expensive to rent despite Austin having higher-income residents and a larger economy. This reflects the Austin supply surge depressing rents 17–22% from their 2022 peak. On overall cost of living, Austin's BEA price level is 98.1 versus Orlando's 101.4 (both 2024, US = 100), making Austin about 3% cheaper overall. Population growth reinforces demand in both: Austin grew +2.1% year-over-year (2025 Census estimate) versus Orlando's +1.29%, though Orlando's absolute base of 2.96 million (2025) already exceeds Austin's 2.62 million (2025).

**Taxes & Total Cost of Ownership** — Both Texas and Florida impose no state income tax on wages (2026 tax year), so that is a wash. Property taxes, however, are a sharp differentiator. Austin carries a 1.43% effective rate (ACS 2024, homestead exemptions reflected) versus Orlando's 0.74% effective rate (ACS 2024, homestead exemptions reflected) — a gap of 0.69 percentage points. On a $400,000 home, that translates to roughly $2,760 more per year in Austin. Florida's property-tax advantage is a real and recurring offset to Austin's lower cost of living and income premium, and it becomes more significant at higher price points. Buyers should weigh Austin's higher tax burden against its lower overall price level and zero income-tax parity with Florida.