Austin vs Orlando

**Home-Price Appreciation: Correction vs. Stability**

Austin and Orlando tell sharply different stories on price trajectory. Austin's FHFA HPI has been in a prolonged sideways-to-declining channel since peaking in 2022-Q2, and as of 2026-Q1 sits at a level that represents a year-over-year decline of **-0.8%** and a quarter-over-quarter dip of **-0.3%** — the index has essentially oscillated in a tight band between roughly 500 and 512 for the past two years with no sustained recovery. Tracing the full series, Austin's index surged nearly 80% from 2020-Q1 through its 2022-Q2 peak before giving back a meaningful portion of those gains; it remains well above pre-pandemic levels but the correction has been the deepest of any major Sun Belt metro. Orlando, by contrast, never experienced the same magnitude of overshoot and has posted **+2.5% year-over-year** and **+0.9% quarter-over-quarter** appreciation as of 2026-Q1, with its HPI climbing steadily from a 2023-Q1 trough to new highs. Orlando's total run-up from 2020-Q1 to today — roughly 67% — was aggressive but came without the same severe retracement. For buyers, Austin offers a potentially lower entry point relative to its own recent history; Orlando offers more recent price momentum but less room for a "buying the dip" thesis.

**Construction & Supply Pressure**

Supply dynamics explain much of the price divergence. Austin's permit activity has fallen dramatically — the most recent reading of **1,549 permits in May 2026 represents a -53.2% year-over-year collapse** from the 2,893–3,505 range seen in mid-2024. Even so, Austin's absolute permit counts over the trailing 12–18 months remain substantial in historical terms, and the 31,000 apartment units delivered in 2024 alone continue to weigh on rents and indirectly on for-sale pricing. Orlando's permit trend is the inverse: **1,846 permits in May 2026, up +3% year-over-year**, with a volatile but generally resilient series that spiked to 3,632 in January 2025. Orlando is still building, which will cap long-run appreciation but also signals developer confidence in underlying demand. Austin's sharp permit pullback could become a tailwind for prices once the existing supply pipeline is absorbed — typically a 12–24 month lag — while Orlando's continued construction suggests supply relief is ongoing rather than on pause.

**Labor Markets & Economic Fundamentals**

The two metros diverge materially on labor market health. Austin's unemployment rate has remained remarkably stable, holding between 3.1% and 3.8% across the past two years and printing at **3.5% in May 2026** — consistent with a resilient, tech-driven economy anchored by Dell, Apple, Tesla, Oracle, Samsung, and a dense startup ecosystem. Median household income in Austin's MSA is **$99,897**, roughly 23% above Orlando's **$81,044**. Orlando's unemployment picture is more concerning: after holding in the low-to-mid 3% range through early 2025, it climbed sharply — hitting 4.9% in January 2026 before settling at **4.4% in May 2026**. This rise reflects the vulnerability of a leisure-and-hospitality-heavy economy to cyclical softening. Orlando's cost-of-living index of **90.6** (below the U.S. average) versus Austin's **129** is a significant offset for lower-income workers, and Orlando's property tax rate of ~**1.02%** is dramatically lower than Austin's **1.8%–2.1%**, which matters enormously to homeowner carrying costs in a high-assessed-value market.

**Rental Market & Investment Considerations**

On the rental side, Orlando's HUD 2-bedroom Fair Market Rent of **$1,972/month** slightly exceeds Austin's **$1,852/month** — a counterintuitive gap given Austin's higher incomes, but explained by Austin's rental correction (rents reportedly down 17–22% from 2022 peaks following the apartment supply surge). For landlords and investors, Austin's compressed rents reduce near-term cash flow potential but may represent a cyclical trough if new supply slows and population growth — which hit **+11% from 2020–2024** — continues to drive household formation. Orlando's rental market faces its own structural headwinds: Florida's property insurance crisis has raised operating costs sharply, and tightening short-term rental regulations are eroding the investor-premium that historically supported Orlando pricing near tourist corridors. Both metros share no state income tax, but Austin investors must account for significantly higher property tax bills relative to assessed value. Buyers choosing between these markets are effectively choosing between Austin's higher-income, higher-cost, correcting market with long-term supply absorption upside, and Orlando's more affordable, steadier-appreciation market shadowed by rising unemployment and insurance cost risk.