Austin vs Orlando

**Price Trends & Entry Point**

Austin and Orlando tell very different stories on price trajectory over the past 24 months. Austin peaked at roughly $560,000 in mid-2024 and has since corrected to a March 2026 median of $469,500 — a decline of approximately 16% from that peak and a year-over-year drop of **-7.9%**. That correction is among the steepest in the Sun Belt, driven by a massive wave of new supply: roughly 31,000 apartment units delivered in 2024 alone pushed rents down 17–22% from their 2022 highs and softened for-sale demand simultaneously. Orlando, by contrast, has been remarkably stable. Its median price drifted from roughly $440,000 in April 2024 to a March 2026 reading of $419,000 — a modest slide of about 5% over two years — with a year-over-year change of just **-0.2%**. In absolute dollar terms, Austin still carries a $50,500 price premium over Orlando ($469,500 vs. $419,000), but buyers targeting Austin are purchasing at a meaningful discount to where that market was 18 months ago, while Orlando buyers are entering near a plateau that has shown little volatility in either direction.

**Inventory Conditions & Market Balance**

Both markets have loosened from the extreme tightness of 2022–2023, but they've done so in distinct ways. Austin's inventory has been volatile, swinging from a low of 1.7 months of supply in April 2024 to a peak of 5.7 months in December 2025 before compressing sharply to **2.4 months** by March 2026. That compression — from a clear buyer's market in late 2025 to borderline balanced conditions today — combined with a +3.2% month-over-month price uptick suggests early signs of stabilization, though with 10,147 active listings and 53 days on market, sellers are still competing. Orlando's inventory trajectory has been steadier: supply climbed from 2.1 months in April 2024 to a peak of 4.5 months in December 2025, then settled back to exactly **3.0 months** in March 2026 — a textbook balanced market. Homes are taking longer to sell in Orlando (**67 days on market** vs. 53 in Austin), and with 13,222 active listings across a slightly larger metro, buyers there have more selection and less urgency pressure than in Austin.

**Market Velocity & Buyer Composition**

Austin's faster days-on-market figure (53 vs. 67) and its sharper recent inventory compression suggest more transactional momentum despite the correction. Cash buyers account for **25.2%** of Austin closings versus **28%** in Orlando — both elevated above national norms, but Orlando's higher cash share reflects its historically investor-heavy, short-term-rental-driven demand base. That dynamic is now under pressure: Florida's escalating homeowners insurance costs and tightening STR regulations are pulling investor appetite back, which could weigh on resale values in Orlando's investment-concentrated submarkets. Austin's cash buyer share, while also significant, skews more toward tech-sector relocators and institutional buyers betting on the correction bottom.

**Economic Fundamentals & Livability Trade-Offs**

The two metros diverge sharply on economic profile and cost structure. Austin's median household income of **$99,897** is roughly 23% higher than Orlando's **$81,044**, reflecting its tech-heavy employer base (Dell, Apple, Tesla, Oracle, Samsung's new Taylor semiconductor fab). Austin's cost of living index of **113** is meaningfully above the U.S. average, while Orlando's **90.6** makes it one of the more affordable large Sun Belt metros on an all-in basis. Property taxes represent perhaps the starkest structural difference: Austin/Travis County buyers face an effective rate of approximately **2.07%** of assessed value, which on a $469,500 home translates to roughly $9,700 annually. Orlando/Orange County buyers pay closer to **1.02%** — roughly $4,270 on a $419,000 home — less than half the annual tax burden, partially offsetting Florida's insurance cost headwinds. Both states have no income tax. Population growth has been strong in both metros (+10.8% in Austin vs. +10.0% in Orlando since 2019), though Orlando logged the fastest single-year growth among the 30 largest MSAs in 2024 at +2.7%, adding demand that continues to support its price floor.