Jacksonville vs Orlando

**Home-Price Appreciation & Trends**

Both markets have cooled sharply from their 2022 peaks, but Orlando is holding its footing better on a year-over-year basis. According to the FHFA House Price Index as of Q2 2026, Orlando posted +0.8% YoY appreciation while Jacksonville came in nearly flat at +0.1% YoY. Quarter-over-quarter, both markets declined, but Jacksonville's pullback was steeper: -1.3% QoQ versus Orlando's -0.5% QoQ as of Q2 2026. Neither market is appreciating at a pace that would signal urgency for buyers, but Jacksonville's combination of near-zero annual growth and a sharper quarterly dip suggests more near-term price softness. Buyers seeking price stability may find Orlando's trajectory modestly more reassuring, while those hunting for negotiating leverage may find Jacksonville more accommodating.

**Construction & Supply Pipeline**

The two markets tell very different stories on new supply. In July 2026, Jacksonville issued just 844 permits — a dramatic -37.8% drop versus July 2025 (Census BPS). That steep pullback could eventually tighten supply and support prices, but it also raises questions about builder confidence in the local market. Orlando, by contrast, pulled 2,008 permits in July 2026, down only -3.6% from a year earlier (Census BPS). Orlando's permit count is more than double Jacksonville's in the same month, reflecting its larger metro size (2.96M vs. 1.79M residents per 2025 estimates) and a more active development environment anchored by the Lake Nona corridor and continued suburban expansion. Sustained permitting in Orlando means buyers there face ongoing new-construction competition, which can cap resale appreciation but also keeps the housing stock fresher.

**Labor Markets & Income**

Both metros have seen unemployment drift upward over the past year, though neither is in distress territory. Jacksonville's unemployment rate was 4.9% in July 2026 (not seasonally adjusted, BLS LAUS), up from 4.3% a year earlier in July 2025. Orlando's rate stood at 4.7% in July 2026, up from 4.1% in July 2025. Jacksonville's rate is slightly higher and has risen a bit more sharply, which may reflect some softening in its finance, logistics, and defense-adjacent sectors. Orlando's employment base — diversified across tourism, healthcare (Orlando Health, AdventHealth), defense simulation (L3Harris, Lockheed Martin), and UCF — has shown marginally more resilience, though hospitality-heavy economies are sensitive to consumer spending cycles. On household income, the two metros are nearly identical: Jacksonville's median is $82,053 versus Orlando's $81,044 (Census ACS 1-year estimates, 2024), a difference of roughly $1,000 annually that is not economically meaningful for housing decisions.

**Rents, Cost of Living & Taxes**

For renters or investors underwriting rental income, the gap between these markets is meaningful. HUD FY2026 Fair Market Rents for a two-bedroom unit are $1,658/month in Jacksonville and $1,972/month in Orlando — a $314/month (roughly 19%) premium in Orlando. That premium may support stronger investment yields in Orlando if purchase prices are comparable, though it also raises the cost barrier for renter households there. On cost of living, the markets are nearly equivalent: BEA Regional Price Parities (2024) show Jacksonville at 99.5 (just below the U.S. average of 100) and Orlando at 101.4, a gap of under 3 percentage points. Both metros benefit from Florida's absence of a state income tax on wages (Florida Department of Revenue, 2026 tax year). Property tax effective rates are virtually identical: Jacksonville at 0.75% and Orlando at 0.74% (Census ACS 1-year estimates, 2024, with homestead exemptions already reflected). The difference in effective rate is just 0.01 percentage points; on a $375,200 home in Jacksonville that translates to $2,808 in annual taxes, while the higher median home value in Orlando ($409,400) produces $3,012 annually — a dollar difference driven almost entirely by Orlando's higher home values rather than a meaningfully different rate structure.