Jacksonville vs Tampa

Home-Price Appreciation: Tampa Divisions Edge Ahead

Jacksonville's FHFA index rose just 0.1% year over year as of Q2 2026 and slipped 1.3% quarter over quarter, a clear step back after a stronger Q1 2026. Tampa has no metro-wide FHFA figure because FHFA publishes it as two divisions. As of Q2 2026, the Tampa division's index rose 1.1% year over year and fell 0.4% on the quarter, while the St. Petersburg-Clearwater-Largo division's index slipped 0.1% year over year and 0.1% on the quarter. Both markets are essentially flat to slightly positive over the year, with Jacksonville showing the sharper recent quarterly dip and the Tampa area showing a split between its two divisions. Jacksonville's narrative points to inventory moving toward balance, while Tampa's points to buyer leverage as inventory grows and insurance costs weigh on affordability.

Construction Activity: Opposite Directions

Permit trends diverge sharply. Jacksonville recorded 844 building permits in July 2026, down 37.8% from July 2025. Tampa recorded 2,163 units in July 2026, up 37.8% from the same month a year earlier. Monthly permit counts are volatile, and Jacksonville's June 2026 count of 1,541 was far higher than July's, so one month should not be over-read. Still, Tampa's permitting has been steadier through 2026, which suggests more new supply coming online there, while Jacksonville's builders appear to be pulling back. Jacksonville's population grew +1.49% year over year (2025 Census estimate) versus +0.40% for Tampa, so Jacksonville is adding people faster while permitting less.

Labor Market and Rental Costs

Unemployment is similar and rising in both metros. Jacksonville's rate was 4.9% in July 2026 versus 4.3% in July 2025, and Tampa's was 4.8% versus 4.1% a year earlier (all not seasonally adjusted). Median household income from the ACS 2024 estimates is $82,053 in Jacksonville and $78,275 in Tampa. Rents differ more: HUD's FY2026 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is $1,658 a month in Jacksonville and $1,977 in Tampa, a gap of $319 a month. Tampa is about 1.9 times the size of Jacksonville by the 2025 Census estimates and has a larger base of healthcare, finance, and MacDill-related employment, while Jacksonville leans on the Navy, Mayo Clinic, and financial services.

Cost of Living and Taxes: Nearly a Wash

The BEA price level (2024, US = 100) is 99.5 for Jacksonville and 100.9 for Tampa, which is roughly even, with a gap under 3%. Neither state taxes wage income, as both metros are in Florida. ACS 2024 effective property tax rates are 0.75% in Jacksonville and 0.74% in Tampa, effectively level at 0.01 points apart. Median home values in the ACS 2024 data are $375,200 in Jacksonville and $387,400 in Tampa. Insurance is the larger variable: Tampa's narrative cites typical premiums of $4,800 to $6,200 a year, and Jacksonville's carrying costs are also pressured, though its hurricane risk profile is somewhat lower than South Florida's. Commutes are similar, at 27 minutes in Jacksonville and 29.4 in Tampa, and both are car-dependent, with Walk Scores of 35 and 49.