Austin vs Tampa

Home-Price Appreciation: Tampa Edges Ahead, Both Flat

Austin's FHFA index rose 0.3% year over year and 0.9% quarter over quarter as of Q2 2026, so the latest quarter is its strongest in a while. That gain comes after a long plateau: the index has hovered near the same level since 2023 following the sharp correction from its mid-2022 peak. For Tampa, FHFA publishes only two metropolitan divisions, with no metro-wide figure. As of Q2 2026, the Tampa division's index rose 1.1% year over year but slipped 0.4% quarter over quarter. The St. Petersburg-Clearwater-Largo division's index fell 0.1% year over year and 0.1% quarter over quarter. The takeaway is that neither market is appreciating meaningfully. Austin has the better near-term momentum, while the Tampa division has the better annual gain and the St. Petersburg-Clearwater-Largo division is slightly negative.

Construction and Labor Markets: Diverging Signals

Building permits point in opposite directions. Austin recorded 2,605 units in July 2026, down 10.7% from July 2025, and the monthly series shows several months in the 1,400 to 1,600 range earlier in 2026, so July looks like a rebound within a weaker trend. Tampa recorded 2,163 units in July 2026, up 37.8% from July 2025. Austin still permitted more units in that month, but Tampa's pipeline is growing while Austin works through the supply it built during the pandemic boom. On jobs, Austin's unemployment was 4.0% in July 2026 (not seasonally adjusted), up from 3.6% in July 2025. Tampa's was 4.8% in July 2026, up from 4.1% a year earlier. Both labor markets softened over the year, and Tampa's rate is higher and has been above 4.5% since late 2025 in the monthly series. Austin's population grew 2.10% year over year in the 2025 Census estimate versus 0.40% for Tampa, which is about 1.3 times Austin's size.

Rents, Income, and Cost of Living

HUD's FY2026 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is $1,852 a month in Austin and $1,977 in Tampa, so Tampa renters face a higher benchmark despite lower incomes. Median household income in the 2024 ACS is $99,897 in Austin and $78,275 in Tampa. BEA's 2024 price levels (US = 100) are 98.1 for Austin and 100.9 for Tampa, which is roughly even with a gap under 3%. Taken together, Austin households have more income to cover similar overall living costs, and Tampa's rent benchmark sits above Austin's.

Taxes: Property Tax Is the Big Swing

Neither Texas nor Florida taxes wage income at the state level in the 2026 tax year. The difference is in property taxes. Austin's ACS effective rate is 1.43% (2024), versus 0.74% for Tampa, a gap of 0.69 percentage points. On a $400,000 home, that works out to about $2,760 a year more in Austin. Tampa's lower tax bill should be weighed against homeowners insurance, which the market narrative puts at roughly $4,800 to $6,200 a year for a typical Tampa home, so the tax advantage may be partly offset. Austin buyers should weigh the higher tax bill against its higher incomes and recent price stabilization.