Dallas-Fort Worth vs Jacksonville
Sun Belt real estate market comparison · data as of 2026-05
While Dallas-Fort Worth offers a deeper job market, $92,733 median household income, and 5,100+ monthly permits keeping supply in check, Jacksonville is appreciating nearly three times faster (3.2% vs. 1.1% YoY) and carries a property tax rate roughly half of DFW's 1.70% — making these two no-income-tax metros genuinely divergent bets.
Compare two markets
- Market A
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX
North Texas powerhouse balancing massive job growth with surging housing supply
$1,931/mo+1.1% HPI YoY2BR Fair Market Rent · HUD vintage 2026 FHFA HPI 428.3 (Dallas-Plano-Irving, )
Full Dallas-Fort Worth market profile - Market B
Jacksonville, FL
North Florida's port-and-logistics metro with Sun Belt prices and insurance pressure
$1,658/mo+3.2% HPI YoY2BR Fair Market Rent · HUD vintage 2026 FHFA HPI 467.2 (Jacksonville, )
Full Jacksonville market profile
The Verdict: Dallas-Fort Worth vs Jacksonville
Choose Dallas-Fort Worth
You should choose Dallas-Fort Worth if your income depends on landing a job quickly or switching employers mid-decade. With unemployment holding at 4.0% across AT&T, Lockheed Martin, Texas Instruments, and American Airlines, DFW's employer depth is unmatched in this pairing — and $92,733 median household income gives buyers real purchasing power despite the 1.70% property tax bite.
Choose Jacksonville
Choose Jacksonville if you're buying to build equity and can tolerate a thinner local job market. Home values are compounding faster — up 3.2% year-over-year and hitting all-time highs in 2026-Q1 — while new permit issuance has collapsed 27% year-over-year, tightening supply structurally. Add a 0.87% property tax rate and a cost-of-living index six points below the national average, and the ownership math runs meaningfully cheaper.
The Deciding Factor
Property taxes split these metros sharply: DFW's 1.70% effective rate costs roughly twice Jacksonville's 0.87% annually — on a $400,000 home, that's nearly $3,300 more per year before Florida's insurance volatility even enters the picture.
Market Stats Comparison
| Metric | Dallas-Fort Worth | Buyer-favourable indicator | Jacksonville |
|---|---|---|---|
| HPI YoY change | +1.1% | +3.2% | |
| HPI QoQ change | +0.6% | +1.5% | |
| HPI index value | 428.3 | 467.2 | |
| Monthly building permits | 5,107 | 869 | |
| Permits YoY change | 0.0% | -27.2% | |
| Unemployment rate | 4% | 4.7% | |
| Population growth YoY | +1.48% | +1.49% | |
| 2BR Fair Market Rent | $1,931 | $1,658 |
HPI YoY change
HPI QoQ change
HPI index value
Monthly building permits
Permits YoY change
Unemployment rate
Population growth YoY
2BR Fair Market Rent
City Fundamentals
Demographics, taxes & livability · researched at generation time
| Category | Dallas-Fort Worth | Jacksonville |
|---|---|---|
| Population | 8,344,032 (2024 est., U.S. Census Bureau) · +11.0% (2020–2024, Census Bureau est.) | 1.76M (2024 ACS 1-year est., Census Reporter) · +10.0% (2019–2024, from ~1.60M to ~1.76M) |
| Median Household Income | $92,733 (ACS 2024 1-year estimate, MSA) | $82,053 (ACS 2024 1-year, MSA) |
| Cost of Living | 97 (US avg = 100; ~3% below national average, C2ER) | 94 (US avg = 100; ~6% below national average) |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.0–4.1% (2024–2025 avg, Dallas Fed / BLS) | 4.8% (April 2026, BLS / USAFacts, not seasonally adjusted) |
| State Income Tax | None (Texas has no state income tax) | None (Florida levies no individual state income tax) |
| Property Tax Rate | ~1.70% of assessed value (est., Tarrant/Dallas County avg) | ~0.87% of assessed value (Duval County avg; metro range 0.71%–1.10% across counties) |
| Major Employers |
|
|
| Avg Commute | 28.8 min (one-way average, ACS 2024) | 27 min (one-way average, ACS 2024 MSA) |
| Sunny Days / Year | ~234 days per year (Dallas; US avg = 205) | ~233 days per year (est.) |
| Avg Summer High | 96°F (July–August average high, NOAA 1991–2020 normals) | ~91°F (July average high) |
| Walkability | 46 (car-dependent; sprawling suburban metro) | 35 (car-dependent; est. for broader MSA) |
👥 Population
Dallas-Fort Worth
8,344,032 (2024 est., U.S. Census Bureau) · +11.0% (2020–2024, Census Bureau est.)Jacksonville
1.76M (2024 ACS 1-year est., Census Reporter) · +10.0% (2019–2024, from ~1.60M to ~1.76M)💰 Median Household Income
Dallas-Fort Worth
$92,733 (ACS 2024 1-year estimate, MSA)Jacksonville
$82,053 (ACS 2024 1-year, MSA)🛒 Cost of Living
Dallas-Fort Worth
97 (US avg = 100; ~3% below national average, C2ER)Jacksonville
94 (US avg = 100; ~6% below national average)📊 Unemployment Rate
Dallas-Fort Worth
4.0–4.1% (2024–2025 avg, Dallas Fed / BLS)Jacksonville
4.8% (April 2026, BLS / USAFacts, not seasonally adjusted)🏛️ State Income Tax
Dallas-Fort Worth
None (Texas has no state income tax)Jacksonville
None (Florida levies no individual state income tax)🏠 Property Tax Rate
Dallas-Fort Worth
~1.70% of assessed value (est., Tarrant/Dallas County avg)Jacksonville
~0.87% of assessed value (Duval County avg; metro range 0.71%–1.10% across counties)🏢 Major Employers
Dallas-Fort Worth
- AT&T, American Airlines, Lockheed Martin (telecom, aviation & defense)
- Toyota, Texas Instruments, Dell Technologies (auto & tech)
- Baylor Scott & White, Tenet Healthcare (healthcare)
- Southwest Airlines, BNSF Railway, ExxonMobil (logistics & energy)
Jacksonville
- Naval Air Station Jacksonville / U.S. Navy (military & defense)
- Mayo Clinic Florida (healthcare)
- Bank of America / Fidelity National Financial (finance & insurance)
- Amazon / Wayfair / logistics sector (e-commerce & distribution)
🚗 Avg Commute
Dallas-Fort Worth
28.8 min (one-way average, ACS 2024)Jacksonville
27 min (one-way average, ACS 2024 MSA)☀️ Sunny Days / Year
Dallas-Fort Worth
~234 days per year (Dallas; US avg = 205)Jacksonville
~233 days per year (est.)🌡️ Avg Summer High
Dallas-Fort Worth
96°F (July–August average high, NOAA 1991–2020 normals)Jacksonville
~91°F (July average high)🚶 Walkability
Dallas-Fort Worth
46 (car-dependent; sprawling suburban metro)Jacksonville
35 (car-dependent; est. for broader MSA)Data researched via AI at time of comparison generation. Figures are estimates — verify with official sources before making financial decisions.
AI Analysis: Dallas-Fort Worth vs Jacksonville
Generated July 2026 · SunBeltPulse Research
Key Takeaways
- Jacksonville is appreciating nearly three times faster than DFW on a year-over-year basis (3.2% vs. 1.1% for Dallas and 0.9% for Fort Worth as of 2026-Q1), driven partly by a sharp drop in new permit issuance — down 27.2% year-over-year to just 869 in May 2026.
- DFW is one of the nation's most active construction markets, issuing over 5,100 permits in May 2026 alone — a volume roughly six times Jacksonville's — which has kept price appreciation subdued despite strong population growth of 1.48% annually.
- Jacksonville's unemployment rate has deteriorated notably, rising from below 3.5% in early 2025 to 4.7% by May 2026, while DFW has remained more stable at 4.0%, reflecting its larger and more diversified employer base.
- DFW's property tax rate of ~1.70% of assessed value is roughly double Jacksonville's ~0.87%, a significant ongoing cost difference for both homeowners and investors that partially offsets DFW's higher median household income of $92,733 versus Jacksonville's $82,053.
- Jacksonville offers a lower rental cost floor at $1,658/month for a 2-bedroom (HUD FMR) compared to DFW's $1,931/month, and a slightly deeper cost-of-living discount at 6% below the national average versus DFW's 3%, though Florida's property insurance environment adds variable carrying costs not captured in those figures.
**Home-Price Appreciation: Jacksonville Leading, DFW Plateauing**
Jacksonville is outpacing Dallas-Fort Worth on price momentum by a notable margin. As of 2026-Q1, Jacksonville's FHFA HPI is up 3.2% year-over-year and 1.5% quarter-over-quarter — the strongest recent quarterly gain of any series in this comparison. DFW's two sub-markets tell a nearly identical, much quieter story: Dallas-Plano-Irving is up just 1.1% YoY and 0.6% QoQ, while Fort Worth-Arlington-Grapevine is up 0.9% YoY and 0.6% QoQ. Looking back through the HPI series, both metros peaked in mid-2022 following the pandemic surge. Jacksonville hit its cycle peak in 2022-Q3, pulled back modestly, and has since climbed to a new all-time HPI high in 2026-Q1. DFW's Dallas sub-market similarly set a new high in 2026-Q1, but only barely, having essentially traded sideways since 2022-Q2. Fort Worth reached a new high as well, but appreciation since the 2022 peak has been minimal in both cases. Over the full 10-year window from 2016-Q2 to 2026-Q1, Jacksonville's HPI has risen roughly 113%, versus approximately 93% for Dallas-Plano-Irving and 99% for Fort Worth-Arlington-Grapevine — Jacksonville has compounded faster despite starting from a similar base.
**Construction Activity: DFW Is a Building Machine; Jacksonville Is Pulling Back**
The supply picture couldn't be more different between these two metros. DFW issued 5,107 permits in May 2026, flat year-over-year (0% change), maintaining a consistently high monthly run rate that has ranged from roughly 4,200 to 7,700 over the past two years. This sustained construction output — one of the highest permit volumes of any U.S. metro — is a primary reason DFW appreciation has been subdued: new supply is keeping pace with demand. Jacksonville, by contrast, issued just 869 permits in May 2026, a sharp 27.2% decline year-over-year. Monthly permit counts that ran above 1,000–1,500 through mid-2024 and into early 2025 have fallen steeply in late 2025 and into 2026. That contraction in new supply, combined with continued population inflow, provides a structural tailwind for Jacksonville home-price appreciation — and helps explain the market's stronger YoY and QoQ HPI gains.
**Labor Markets and Economic Fundamentals**
DFW carries a clear labor-market advantage. Unemployment in the metro stood at 4.0% in May 2026, has ranged between 3.5% and 4.3% over the past two years, and reflects a deeply diversified employer base spanning telecom (AT&T), aviation (American Airlines, Southwest), defense (Lockheed Martin), technology (Texas Instruments, Dell), and healthcare (Baylor Scott & White, Tenet). Jacksonville's unemployment rate, by contrast, has drifted meaningfully higher: after holding in the low-to-mid 3% range through early 2025, it jumped to 5.1% in November 2025 and remains elevated at 4.7% as of May 2026. Jacksonville's economy — anchored by the Navy, Mayo Clinic, financial services (Bank of America, Fidelity National Financial), and logistics — is smaller and less diversified, which may amplify cyclical sensitivity. On income, DFW's median household income of $92,733 is roughly $10,700 higher than Jacksonville's $82,053, though Jacksonville's cost-of-living index of 94 (6% below the national average) undercuts DFW's 97 index (3% below average), partially closing the gap in purchasing power.
**Rental Market, Taxes, and Carrying Costs**
For renters and investors evaluating yield potential, Jacksonville's HUD 2-bedroom fair market rent of $1,658/month is meaningfully lower than DFW's $1,931/month — a $273/month difference. However, the more consequential cost distinction for owners may be property taxes. DFW's effective property tax rate averages approximately 1.70% of assessed value, which is among the highest in the Sun Belt and a notable drag on affordability and investor returns — a trade-off for Texas's lack of state income tax. Jacksonville's Duval County effective rate of roughly 0.87% is dramatically lower, nearly half of DFW's, though Florida's ongoing property insurance crisis adds a less predictable carrying cost that varies by property age, construction type, and proximity to flood zones. Both states have no individual income tax, putting them on equal footing there. Commute times are comparable — 28.8 minutes average for DFW versus 27 minutes for Jacksonville — and both metros are heavily car-dependent, with Walk Scores of 46 and 35, respectively.