Dallas-Fort Worth vs Jacksonville

**Price Trends & Trajectory** Dallas-Fort Worth and Jacksonville have followed strikingly similar price arcs over the past 24 months, but DFW carries a meaningfully higher price tag. DFW's median sits at $420,000 as of March 2026, down -0.8% year-over-year, while Jacksonville's median is $389,900, down a steeper -2.3% YoY — a $30,100 spread that represents roughly an 8% discount for Jacksonville buyers. Both markets peaked in mid-2024 (DFW at ~$454,500 in May 2024; Jacksonville at ~$422,000 in May 2024), then declined through winter before rebounding in spring. Both hit cycle lows in January 2026 — DFW at $405,000, Jacksonville at $375,000 — and have recovered modestly since. The month-over-month bounce is nearly identical: DFW +2.2%, Jacksonville +2.1%, suggesting parallel seasonal demand dynamics rather than a divergence in buyer conviction. Jacksonville's larger YoY decline implies it has shed more of its pandemic-era premium, while DFW's price floor has proven somewhat stickier, likely supported by its sheer scale and diversified demand base.

**Inventory & Market Velocity** Both markets show inventory patterns that are tightly synchronized. Each hit 4.2 months of supply in December 2024 — the loosest conditions in the two-year window — before snapping back sharply to roughly balanced territory by early 2026. DFW currently sits at 2.1 months of supply with 24,968 active listings; Jacksonville is at 2.3 months with only 7,527 active listings, reflecting its much smaller metro scale. Where the markets diverge is in market velocity: DFW homes are selling in 48 days on average versus 58 days in Jacksonville, a 10-day gap that signals stronger transactional momentum in DFW despite its larger inventory pool. That faster pace in Dallas may reflect the depth of its buyer pool — 8.34 million residents versus Jacksonville's 1.76 million — and the continuous flow of corporate relocation-driven demand. Jacksonville's slower days-on-market could give buyers more negotiating runway, while DFW's tighter velocity suggests less room to negotiate.

**Buyer & Seller Dynamics** Cash buyers are a notable presence in both markets, but more so in Jacksonville at 26% versus DFW's 22%. A higher cash-buyer share typically compresses financing contingency risk for sellers and can put financed buyers at a competitive disadvantage, particularly in a market where days on market are already running 10 days longer — the cash premium may be helping Jacksonville sellers hold prices more than the YoY figure suggests. On the cost-of-ownership side, the two markets diverge sharply on property taxes: DFW's effective rate of approximately 1.80% of assessed value is nearly double Jacksonville's ~0.98%. On a $420,000 DFW home, that implies roughly $7,560/year in property taxes versus approximately $3,820/year on a comparable Jacksonville home — a $3,740 annual carrying-cost difference that meaningfully offsets DFW's nominal price advantage in some suburban submarkets. Jacksonville buyers must also contend with Florida's statewide property insurance pressures, which can add hundreds to thousands of dollars annually in premiums depending on home age and location, partially eroding the tax savings.

**Economic Fundamentals & Livability** Both metros benefit from no state income tax, similar population growth rates (~9.3–9.6% from 2019–2024), and nearly identical unemployment rates (DFW 3.8%, Jacksonville 3.6%). DFW's median household income of $92,733 runs about $10,700 higher than Jacksonville's $82,053, which helps explain — and partially justify — its higher home prices; the price-to-income ratio is roughly 4.5x in DFW versus 4.8x in Jacksonville, making Jacksonville marginally less affordable relative to local wages despite its lower sticker price. DFW's cost of living index of 104 is slightly above the national average, while Jacksonville's 98 sits just below it. Both are heavily car-dependent (Walk Scores of 46 and 28, respectively), share 234 sunny days per year, and have comparable commute times under 29 minutes. DFW's employer roster — AT&T, American Airlines, Toyota, ExxonMobil — offers broader sector diversification than Jacksonville's more concentrated mix of military, healthcare, and financial services, which may translate to greater long-term demand stability in the Texas market.