Dallas-Fort Worth vs Raleigh

**Price Trends & Trajectory**

Dallas-Fort Worth and Raleigh tell strikingly different stories over the past 24 months. DFW peaked at $454,500 in May 2024, then sold off steadily to a trough of $405,000 in January 2026—a decline of roughly 11% from peak before recovering to $420,000 as of March 2026. That leaves DFW down 0.8% year-over-year, signaling that the recovery is still partial. Raleigh, by contrast, peaked at $469,900 in June 2024, troughed near $435,962 in February 2025—a shallower drawdown of about 7%—and has since climbed back to $449,900, posting a positive 1.1% year-over-year gain. Raleigh's price floor was stickier and its recovery more complete, while DFW remains roughly $30,000 below where it was two years ago on a YoY basis.

**Inventory & Market Velocity**

Both markets share a similar seasonal rhythm—inventory swells late in the calendar year and compresses sharply in Q1—but the magnitude differs considerably. DFW carried 4.2 months of supply in December 2025, dipping back to 2.1 months by March 2026, with 24,968 active listings. Raleigh reached 3.8 months in December 2025 but has snapped back to just 1.6 months, with only 4,709 active listings. That 5x gap in raw listing count matters: DFW buyers have far more options and negotiating leverage, while Raleigh buyers in March 2026 are operating in a market that is technically still supply-constrained by conventional thresholds (below 2.0 months is generally considered a seller's market). Days on market are nearly identical—48 days in DFW versus 46 in Raleigh—so once a property is priced correctly, it moves at comparable speeds in both metros. Cash buyers represent 22% of DFW transactions versus 20% in Raleigh, a modest difference that slightly favors financed buyers in Raleigh.

**Economic Fundamentals & Cost of Ownership**

Raleigh's median household income of $102,144 edges out DFW's $92,733, and its cost of living index of 95 sits 9 points below DFW's 104—meaning the same dollar stretches further in the Triangle despite Raleigh's higher median home price of $449,900 versus DFW's $420,000. However, the property tax calculus flips sharply: Wake County's effective rate of approximately 0.96% versus DFW's roughly 1.80% produces a meaningful annual difference—a $450,000 Raleigh home carries about $4,320 in annual property taxes compared to roughly $7,560 for a $420,000 DFW home. North Carolina's flat 4.75% state income tax partially offsets that advantage for higher earners, whereas Texas has no state income tax. Unemployment is tighter in Raleigh at 3.2% versus DFW's 3.8%, and Raleigh's population growth rate of 12.4% over 2019–2024 outpaces DFW's 9.3%—notable given that DFW's absolute population of 8.34 million dwarfs Raleigh's 1.56 million.

**Buyer & Seller Dynamics**

For buyers, DFW offers more optionality: greater listing volume, softer year-over-year pricing, and a 2.1-month supply that still leans toward buyers relative to Raleigh's tight 1.6 months. The trade-off is that DFW has not yet demonstrated a durable price floor after two years of erosion from the 2024 peak, which introduces more near-term valuation uncertainty. Raleigh's market has already reestablished positive YoY momentum, suggesting underlying demand is absorbing new supply efficiently—but that also means buyers face stiffer competition and less room to negotiate. Investors weighing rental yield potential should note that DFW's higher property tax burden compresses net operating income, while Raleigh's lower taxes and above-average income demographics support stronger rent coverage. Both metros are car-dependent (Walk Scores of 46 and 35, respectively), so transportation cost is a wash for most households.