Austin vs Jacksonville

**Price Trends & Correction Depth**

Austin has experienced a significantly steeper price correction than Jacksonville over the past two years. Austin's median peaked near $558,000 in April 2024 and has since fallen to $469,500 as of March 2026 — a decline of roughly 16% from that peak — with a year-over-year drop of -7.9%. Jacksonville's correction has been far shallower: its median peaked around $422,000 in May 2024 and sits at $389,900 in March 2026, down about 7.6% from peak, with a milder -2.3% year-over-year change. Both markets show a similar seasonal pattern — prices soften in fall and winter, then recover in spring — but Austin's swings are dramatically larger in absolute dollar terms. The March 2026 month-over-month readings (+3.2% in Austin, +2.1% in Jacksonville) suggest both markets are in the early stages of a typical spring recovery, though Austin's recovery is coming off a much lower base. Entry price is meaningfully different: Austin buyers are paying roughly $80,000 more at the median, even after Austin's larger correction.

**Inventory & Market Velocity**

Both markets are currently tight and nearly identical in months of supply: Austin at 2.4 months and Jacksonville at 2.3 months as of March 2026, both well below the 4–6 month threshold that defines a balanced market. However, the path to get here diverges. Austin's inventory swung wildly — hitting 5.7 months of supply in December 2025 before collapsing back to 2.4 months by March 2026, a reflection of its structural oversupply from a historic construction boom (31,000 apartment units delivered in 2024 alone). Jacksonville's inventory range was narrower, peaking at 4.2 months in December 2025, suggesting a less volatile but still softening market. On days on market, the two are nearly tied: Austin at 53 days versus Jacksonville's 58 days, both meaningfully slower than the sub-30-day frenzy of 2021–2022. Cash buyer participation is nearly identical at 25.2% (Austin) and 26.0% (Jacksonville), indicating similar investor and cash-purchase activity in both metros.

**Economic Fundamentals & Carrying Costs**

Austin's economic engine is more concentrated and higher-octane: Dell, Apple, Tesla, Oracle, SpaceX, and Samsung's new Taylor semiconductor fab underpin a tech-weighted labor market with a median household income of $99,897 and unemployment of 3.1%. Jacksonville's employment base is more diversified — military (NAS Jacksonville), healthcare (Mayo Clinic), financial services (Bank of America, Fidelity), and logistics — with a lower median household income of $82,053 and slightly higher unemployment of 3.6%. Both states have no income tax, which is a meaningful shared advantage. The sharpest carrying-cost divergence is property taxes: Austin buyers face roughly 2.07% of assessed value annually (Travis County), while Jacksonville homeowners pay approximately 0.98% — less than half the rate. On a $469,500 Austin home, that gap translates to roughly $5,100 more per year in property taxes compared to a $389,900 Jacksonville home taxed at Jacksonville's rate. Jacksonville also carries a cost-of-living index of 98 (just below the U.S. average), versus Austin's 113, a 15-point gap that compounds the price and tax differences for day-to-day expenses. Florida's property insurance crisis is a real offset for Jacksonville buyers, however — elevated premiums statewide add a carrying cost not fully captured in the headline price comparison.

**Trade-offs for Buyers and Investors**

Austin presents a higher-risk, higher-upside profile. The 15%+ price decline from peak creates an entry point not seen since 2020, and long-term demand drivers — a dominant tech cluster, a university anchor, and continued domestic in-migration — remain structurally intact. But buyers must weigh Austin's high property tax burden, a cost of living 13% above the national average, and the real possibility that persistent new supply continues to suppress price appreciation in the near term. Jacksonville offers a more modest but arguably more stable footing: lower absolute prices, far lower property taxes, a below-average cost of living, and a shallower correction that suggests less downside risk — but also less dramatic upside. Jacksonville's growth story is real but less spectacular, and the Florida insurance environment adds an opaque but material cost. Both markets currently sit in seller-favorable territory by months-of-supply measures despite their corrections, meaning neither offers buyers significant negotiating leverage at the aggregate level right now.