Austin vs Houston

**Price Trends & Valuation:** Austin's median home price of $469,500 as of March 2026 represents a steep -7.9% year-over-year decline — the sharpest correction among major Sun Belt metros — having fallen roughly 16% from its April 2024 peak of $557,748 in this dataset. The month-over-month reading of +3.2% suggests a tentative floor may be forming, but the trend over the past 24 months is unmistakably downward. Houston tells a quieter story: at $350,500 with a -4.0% YoY change and an essentially flat MoM of +0.1%, prices have been remarkably stable, oscillating in a narrow $349,000–$375,000 band throughout the entire series. The $119,000 price gap between the two metros is substantial — buyers get meaningfully more purchasing power in Houston, and Houston's cost-of-living index of 97 (below the U.S. average) versus Austin's 113 amplifies that advantage in day-to-day expenses beyond housing.

**Inventory & Market Velocity:** Both markets have tightened considerably from their late-2024/late-2025 inventory peaks, but from very different starting points. Austin currently sits at 2.4 months of supply with 10,147 active listings and a days-on-market of 53 — conditions that technically favor sellers, though the sustained price decline suggests motivated sellers are still competing hard for buyers. Houston's 2.8 months of supply with a much larger 31,970 active listings and a tighter 50 days on market reflects a bigger, more liquid market where homes are actually moving slightly faster despite the higher absolute inventory count. The seasonal compression pattern is similar in both metros — months of supply peaked around 5.1–5.7 in Austin and 4.7 in Houston during December 2024 and 2025, then contracted sharply in Q1 2026 — indicating normal seasonal rhythms overlaid on structural softness.

**Buyer & Seller Dynamics:** Cash buyer participation is nearly identical — 25.2% in Austin versus 24.0% in Houston — suggesting institutional and investor appetite is comparable in both markets despite Austin's deeper price correction. This is a nuanced data point: high cash buyer share in a correcting market like Austin can indicate opportunistic investor buying near a perceived floor, while in Houston it may reflect the metro's broader investor-friendly, high-yield rental profile. Austin's higher property tax rate (~2.07%) paired with its elevated home prices creates a heavier annual carrying cost than Houston (~2.09% on a $119,000 lower price base), a real financial difference that compounds over time. Both metros benefit from Texas's zero state income tax, which meaningfully offsets those property tax burdens relative to peer markets.

**Economic Fundamentals & Trade-offs:** Austin's economy is more concentrated in high-growth tech — Dell, Apple, Tesla, Samsung's Taylor fab, Oracle — and its median household income of $99,897 runs roughly $18,000 above Houston's $81,417. However, Austin's unemployment at 3.1% versus Houston's 4.4% reflects both stronger labor demand and a smaller, more homogenous economic base. Houston's diversification across energy (24 Fortune 500 HQs), the world's largest medical complex at Texas Medical Center, NASA/Johnson Space Center, and major port logistics provides a resilience buffer against sector-specific downturns that Austin lacks. Houston's flood risk and associated insurance costs are a real and growing structural consideration that buyers must underwrite neighborhood by neighborhood — a cost and complexity that Austin buyers largely avoid. Austin buyers get a higher-income, higher-growth bet with more downside volatility and a longer average commute of 28.2 minutes versus Houston's 31 minutes; Houston buyers get lower entry prices, broader economic diversification, and near-average national living costs, with flood risk and a somewhat softer labor market as the meaningful offsets.